Month: June 2018

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower on Wednesday, pressured by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.4%), Consumer Services (-1.83%) and Software & Services (-1.58%) sectors. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications decreased by 4.9% in the week ending June 22 from +5.1% previously. In addition, wholesale inventories increased by 0.5% in a preliminary estimate in May, above the expectation of +0.2%, from +0.1% in the previous month. Furthermore, durable goods orders decreased by 0.6% in a preliminary estimate in May (estimated -1%) from -1% in the prior month. Finally, pending home sales decreased by 0.5% in May, below the expectation of +0.5%, from -1.3% in the last month. The S&P 500 (2,699.63) is below both its 20d moving average (2,755.60 – flat) and 50d moving average (2,716.81 – flat). European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

Base oil prices in Europe, the Middle East and Africa appear to have found a modicum of stability the past week. Pockets of activity suggest movement one way or another, but these seem to be confined to specific grades, in localized circumstances that are having little effect on the broader market.

Supply and demand appears to be in balance, with no cries of despair from buyers unable to find material at an acceptable price level.

After the OPEC meeting in Vienna, there were rumors of actions and reactions by members, but crude oil prices nevertheless stood still the last week. This is easing the base oil market by adding a measure of stability. Dated deliveries of Brent crude traded in London yesterday at $74.10 per barrel for August front month, little changed from last week. West Texas Intermediate crude rose nearly $4 to $68.80/bbl, maybe because of tightening U.S. crude inventories. ICE LS gas oil is priced at $642 per metric ton, only some $6 lower than last reported but still for July settlement. read more

07:45 FR JUN Consumer Confidence exp: 100 prev: 100
13:30 US MAY P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.4% prev: 0.9%
13:30 US MAY P Durable Goods Orders exp: -1% prev: -1.6%
13:30 US MAY P Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.1%
15:30 US W24 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -5914

Market Comment
US indices closed higher on Tuesday, led by shares in the Energy (+1.4%), Retailing (+1.07%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.96%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to 126.4 in June, below the estimate of 128, from 128 previously. In addition, the Richmond Federal manufacturing index increased to 20 in June (expected 15) from 16 in the prior month. The S&P 500 (2,723.06) is below its 20d moving average (2,756.82 – positive slope) but stands above its 50d moving average (2,716.95 – positive slope). read more

WTI Crude oil trading at top of range heading into the OPEC meeting today. MACD cross (buy signal) well below zero suggesting a break through to higher levels but sideways trade suggests support at $60: Dealers

15:00 US JUN Consumer Confidence exp: 128.1 prev: 128

General Market Comment

US indices tumbled on Monday as President Trump is planning investment restrictions against Chinese companies. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-3.29%), Consumer Services (-2.88%) and Retailing (-2.43%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, the Chicago national activity index decreased to -0.15 in May (estimated 0.3) from 0.42 previously. In addition, new home sales increased to 689K in May (expected 667K) from 646K in April. Finally, Dallas Fed manufacturing activity increased to 36.5 in June (anticipated 24.9) from 26.8 in May. The S&P 500 (2,717.07) is below its 20d moving average (2,755.16 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,716.04 – positive slope). read more