Month: December 2018

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 20.12.18

NEW YORK  – Oil prices fell about 3 percent on Thursday, hitting their lowest in more than a year on worries about oversupply. The outlook for energy demand as a U.S. interest rate rise knocked stock markets also affected sentiment. Brent crude futures fell $1.53 to $55.71 a barrel, a 2.7 percent loss, by 10:55 a.m. EST (1555 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also fell $1.55 to $46.62 a barrel, a 3.2 percent loss. Brent earlier hit a session low of $54.64 a barrel, the weakest since mid-September 2017, while WTI sank to $45.82, near its lowest since late August 2017. Meanwhile in the metals complex, London aluminum prices sank to a 16-month low after the U.S. Treasury’s announcement will lift sanctions on the core empire of Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska, which includes aluminum giant Rusal. the move effectively waters down the toughest penalties imposed since Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Shares in Rusal, the world’s largest aluminum producer after China’s Hongqiao, surged to an eight-month high while the base metal slid in London trade. read more

EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report: 20.12.18

Base oil markets are entering the seasonal run-down period, when most lubricant blenders close their doors or shorten operating hours. In either case, purchases of significant quantities of base oils becomes a secondary task.

Sellers are scouring the market looking for buyers who keep a low profile, and those convinced to make purchases at this time are able to leverage really low prices from producers and resellers. The continuing lower costs for crude and feedstocks has been the only saving grace for refiners, giving a little more leeway on base oil margins. read more

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK NOV Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: -0.4%
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US DEC Philadelphia Fed. exp: 15.1 prev: 12.9
13:30 US W49 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 218 prev: 206
15:00 US NOV Leading Indicators exp: 0% prev: 0.1%

General Market Comment

U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to a range of 2.25% – 2.5% , as expected. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-4.36%), Transportation (-3.16%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (-2.88%) sectors ended lower. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to a range of 2.25% – 2.50% as widely expected. However Fed official’s median forecast implied that there will be two more rate increases in 2019, down from three times estimated in September. Meanwhile, 2019 GDP growth forecast was lowered to 2.3% from 2.5% and inflation forecast was cut to 1.9% from 2.0%. Chairman Jerome Powell added that inflation remains below 2% target which gives the FOMC room “to be patient”. The S&P 500 (2,506.96) remains below its 20d moving average (2,655.81 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,708.06 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 19.12.18

NEW YORK – U.S. crude stocks fell last week, while gasoline stocks increased and distillate inventories fell, the EIA said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 497,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 14, a much smaller draw than the decrease of 2.4 million barrels that analysts had expected. The decline was the third consecutive decrease.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE NOV Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.3%
09:30 UK NOV CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
09:30 UK NOV PPI – Input (MoM) exp: -2.3% prev: 0.8%
09:30 UK NOV PPI – Output (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 0.3%
15:00 US NOV Existing Home Sales (M) exp: 5.2 prev: 5.2
15:30 US W49 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -1208
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.5% prev: 2.25%

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Energy (-2.35%), Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-1.95%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (-0.83%) sectors ended on a negative note while shares in the Retailing (+1.38%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.23%) and Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.21%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, housing starts rose 3.2% MoM to 1.256M units in November (vs 1.228M expected) and building permits jumped 5.0% MoM to 1.328M in November (vs 1.26M expected). The S&P 500 (2,546.16) remains below its 20d moving average (2,665.00 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,715.61 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 18.12.18

NEW YORK – Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday after reports of swelling inventories and forecasts that record U.S. and Russian output will hit a market that may see weaker demand if global growth deteriorates as many expect. U.S. crude oil fell $2.78, or 5.5 percent to trade at $47.10 a barrel by mid-day. The session low was $46.97, its weakest since September 2017.

Today’s Economic Events

09:00 GE DEC IFO – Business Climate exp: 101.2 prev: 102
09:00 GE DEC IFO – Current Assessment exp: 104.1 prev: 105.4
09:00 GE DEC IFO – Expectations exp: 98.5 prev: 98.7
13:30 US NOV Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1269 prev: 1265
13:30 US NOV Housing Starts (k) exp: 1233 prev: 1228

General Market Comment

U.S. indices closed lower on Monday as investors seem worried regarding the Federal Reserve’s action on interest rates that will take place on Wednesday. Shares in the Household & Personal Products (-3.84%), Real Estate (-3.72%) and Retailing (-3.43%) sectors took the biggest hit. On the economic data front, the Empire Manufacturing index dropped to 10.9 in December (vs 20.0 expected) from 23.3 in November. Meanwhile, the NAHB housing market index fell to 56 in December (vs 60 expected) compared to 60 in November. The S&P 500 (2,545.94) remains below its 20d moving average (2,674.51 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,722.40 – negative slope). read more