Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 60.65 Our preference: short positions below 60.65 with targets at 60.20 & 60.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 60.65 look for further upside with 60.95 & 61.40 as targets. Comment: the RSI has just struck against its neutrality area at 50% and is reversing down. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE SEP Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: -0.1%
07:45 FR OCT P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.3%
07:45 FR OCT P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.4%
10:00 EC 3Q A Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.12% prev: 0.2%
10:00 EC OCT P Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
10:00 EC SEP Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 7.4% prev: 7.4%
12:30 US SEP Personal Income exp: 0.3% prev: 0.4%
12:30 US SEP Personal Spending exp: 0.3% prev: 0.1%
12:30 US W42 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 215 prev: 212
13:45 US OCT Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 48.1 prev: 47.1
U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday lifted by shares in the Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.18%), Software & Services (+1.13%) and Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (+1.13%) sectors. The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 1.50% to 1.75% as expected. Chairman Jerome Powell said: “We see the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.” The S&P 500 (3,046.77) stays above its 20d moving average (2,981.06 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,965.46 – positive slope).
On the economic data front, the ADP National Employment Report stated that U.S. firms added 125,000 jobs in October (+110,000jobs expected, +93,000 jobs in September). Also, U.S. third quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% on quarter (+1.6% expected, +2.0% on the second quarter).
On Thursday, economists expect initial jobless claims for the week ending October 26 to rise to 215,000. Personal income and personal spending are expected to grow 0.3% on month in September, while the Market News International Chicago PMI is anticipated to climb to 48.0 in October from 47.1 in September.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 61.95 Our preference: short positions below 61.95 with targets at 61.10 & 60.65 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 61.95 look for further upside with 62.35 & 62.75 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish. |
Today’s Economic Events
06:30 FR 3Q P GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
07:45 FR SEP Households Consumption (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 0%
08:55 GE OCT Unemployment Change (k) exp: 1.5 prev: -10
08:55 GE OCT Unemployment Rate exp: 5% prev: 5%
10:00 EC OCT Business Climate Indicator exp: -0.23 prev: -0.22
10:00 EC OCT Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence exp: 101.3 prev: 101.7
10:00 EC OCT Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence exp: -8.8 prev: -8.8
10:00 EC OCT F Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -7.6 prev: -7.6
12:15 US OCT ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 120 prev: 135
12:30 US 3Q A GDP (QoQ) exp: 1.6% prev: 2%
12:30 US 3Q A GDP Price (QoQ) exp: 1.8% prev: 2.4%
12:30 US 3Q A Personal Consumption exp: 2.5% prev: 4.6%
13:00 GE OCT P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0%
13:00 GE OCT P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.1%
14:30 US W42 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -1699
18:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 1.75% prev: 2%
US indices closed lower on Tuesday ahead of the FED interest rate meeting Wednesday. Shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.56%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.16%) and Food & Staples Retailing (-1.08%) sectors were under the most pressure. The S&P 500 (3,036.89) stays above its 20d moving average (2,973.10 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,962.54 – positive slope).
On the economic data front, Consumer Confidence fell to 125.9, below the 128.0 estimate for October, down from a revised 126.3 in September. On Wednesday we have the Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision. Also, economists expect MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending October 25th, the ADP National Employment Report for October and Gross Domestic Product is expected to be lower in the third quarter advanced reading.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
EMEA Base Oil Price Report
BY RAY MASSON
API Group I base oil prices are stable throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as supply and demand fundamentals are balanced. Producers, of course, would like to bolster prices wherever possible, but the current economics are not affording any opportunities.
Group II markets seem steady with still a hint of price pressures in this sector, due mainly to the copious quantities of material becoming available. There appears to be growing potential for this segment to tilt towards over-supply, as other already over-saturated regions are looking to sell into Europe and Middle East.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 61.70 Our preference: short positions below 61.70 with targets at 60.95 & 60.65 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 61.70 look for further upside with 62.10 & 62.35 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further decline. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:45 FR OCT Consumer Confidence exp: 104 prev: 104
09:30 UK SEP M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.4%
14:00 US OCT Consumer Confidence exp: 127.6 prev: 125.1
The S&P 500 index posted a record high on Monday lifted by shares in the Telecommunication Services (+1.98%), Software & Services (+1.42%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.31%) sectors. Earnings season has been relatively positive on stocks as we enter the busiest earnings week. The S&P 500 (3,039.42) remains above its 20d moving average (2,968.27 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,960.27 – positive slope).
On the economic data front, Wholesale Inventories fell 0.3% month over month, which was lower than the 0.2 rise expected for the September preliminary reading, down from 0.2% in the prior reading marking a low not reached since October of 2017. On Tuesday, economists expect Consumer Confidence to report at 128.0 for October, up from 125.1 in September.
European markets are expected to open on a flat note.