Month: January 2019

Today’s Economic Events

US DEC Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1284 prev: 1328
US DEC Housing Starts (k) exp: 1253 prev: 1256
US DEC New Home Sales (k) exp: 583 prev: 544
US DEC P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.3% prev: -0.3%
US DEC P Durable Goods Orders exp: 2% prev: 0.8%
US DEC Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
US DEC Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
US NOV Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0.6%
US NOV F Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.8%
US NOV Factory Orders exp: 0.2% prev: -2.1%
US NOV Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.2 prev: -55.5
07:00 GE DEC Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.5% prev: 1.6%
07:45 FR JAN P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.5% prev: 0%
07:45 FR JAN P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.5% prev: 0.1%
08:55 GE JAN Unemployment Change (k) exp: -9.6 prev: -14
08:55 GE JAN Unemployment Rate exp: 5% prev: 5%
10:00 EC 4Q A Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
10:00 EC DEC Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 7.9% prev: 7.9%
13:30 US W3 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 221 prev: 199
14:45 US JAN Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 61.1 prev: 65.4 read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed higher on Wednesday after the Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 2.25%-2.5%, as expected. Shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+4.67%), Retailing (+2.75%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.62%) sectors ended higher. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications decreased by 3% in week ended January 25th vs. a decline of 2.7% in the previous week. ADP employment change reached 213k in January (estimated 181k) from 263k in December. In other news, pending home sales declined by 2.2% MoM in December (forecasted 0.5%) compared to -0.9% a month earlier. Finally, the Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 2.25%-2.5%, as expected. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that the case for raising rates “has weakened somewhat” while adding that financial conditions are “less supportive of growth”. The S&P 500 (2,681.05) stays above its 20d moving average (2,602.55 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,610.18 – flat slope). read more

EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report

Base oil prices are coming under extensive downward pricing pressure throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa as stored stock levels rise in the face of weaker-than-expected demand.

The situation has been in the cards for some time, set up by capacity expansions in the global market and exacerbated by economic slowdowns in key markets.

There are moves afoot to curb base oil production, particularly for Group I stocks supplies within Europe, where supply grows longer by the week. The Group II segment in Europe is following a similar trend as the arrival of a number of cargoes has diluted a previously balanced situation. read more

Today’s Economic Events

06:30 FR 4Q A GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
07:00 GE DEC Import Prices (MoM) exp: -0.9% prev: -1%
07:45 FR DEC Households Consumption (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: -0.3%
07:45 FR DEC Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.4%
09:30 UK DEC M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0%
10:00 EC JAN Business Climate Indicator exp: 0.79 prev: 0.82
10:00 EC JAN Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence exp: 106.8 prev: 107.3
10:00 EC JAN Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence exp: 0.6 prev: 1.1
10:00 EC JAN F Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -7.9 prev: -7.9
13:00 GE JAN P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.8% prev: 0.1%
13:00 GE JAN P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.9% prev: 0.3%
13:15 US JAN ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 179 prev: 271
13:30 US 4Q A GDP (QoQ) exp: 2.6% prev: 3.4%
13:30 US 4Q A GDP Price (QoQ) exp: 1.7% prev: 1.8%
13:30 US 4Q A Personal Consumption exp: NA prev: 3.5%
15:30 US W3 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 7970
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.5% prev: 2.5% read more

General Market Comment

U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Telecommunication Services (-1.56%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.36%) and Retailing (-1.28%) sectors closed on a negative note while shares in the Capital Goods (+1.85%), Materials (+1.01%) and Real Estate (+0.79%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 120.2 in January (estimated 124) from 126.6 in December. The S&P 500 (2,640.00) stays above its 20d moving average (2,593.84 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,610.59 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

US DEC New Home Sales (k) exp: 579 prev: 544
US DEC P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.3% prev: -0.3%
US DEC P Durable Goods Orders exp: 2% prev: 0.8%
07:45 FR JAN Consumer Confidence exp: 87 prev: 87
13:30 US DEC P Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.8%
15:00 US JAN Consumer Confidence exp: 124 prev: 128.1

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower on Monday, pressured by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.5%), Software & Services (-1.32%) and Capital Goods (-1.31%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Chicago federal national activity index improved to 0.27 in December from 0.21 in the previous month. In other news, the Dallas federal manufacturing activity index increased to 1 in January (forecasted -2.7) vs. -5.1 in December. The S&P 500 (2,643.85) stays above its 20d moving average (2,586.13 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,612.23 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

US DEC Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1284 prev: 1328
US DEC Housing Starts (k) exp: 1255 prev: 1256
US DEC Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: -8 prev: -205
US DEC Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
US DEC Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
US NOV Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0.6%
US NOV Factory Orders exp: 0.2% prev: -2.1%
US NOV Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.2 prev: -55.5

General Market Comment

US indices closed higher on Friday as President Trump signed a deal with Congress to temporarily reopen the U.S. government until February 15th. Shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.69%), Materials (+1.92%) and Automobiles & Components (+1.87%) sectors rallied. On the economic data front, there was nothing to report. The S&P 500 (2,664.76) stays above its 20d moving average (2,578.38 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,613.88 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

09:00 GE JAN IFO – Business Climate exp: 100.7 prev: 101
09:00 GE JAN IFO – Current Assessment exp: 103.4 prev: 104.7
09:00 GE JAN IFO – Expectations exp: 97.5 prev: 97.3
13:30 US DEC P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.3% prev: -0.3%
13:30 US DEC P Durable Goods Orders exp: 1.9% prev: 0.8%
15:00 US DEC New Home Sales (k) exp: 579 prev: 544