Month: October 2018

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 31.10.18

LONDON  – Oil prices will likely stay near current levels of $75 per barrel next year in the absence of any supply disruptions as most producers reckon that higher prices would destroy demand and create a new glut, one of the world’s biggest traders said.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE SEP Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: -0.3%
07:45 FR OCT P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.2%
07:45 FR OCT P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.2%
10:00 EC SEP Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 8.1% prev: 8.1%
12:15 US OCT ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 189 prev: 230
13:45 US OCT Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 60.9 prev: 60.4
14:30 US W42 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 6346

General Market Comment 30.10.18

US indices pushed higher on Tuesday led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+4.72%), Consumer Durables & Apparel (+3.42%) and Transportation (+3.05%) sectors. On the economic data front, U.S. consumer confidence reached an 18 year high coming in at 137.9 for Oct (135.9 estimate) compared to a revised 135.3 in Sept. The S&P 500 (2,682.63) remains at levels below both its 20d moving average (2,775.30 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,849.00 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 30.10.18

Oil prices dropped more than 1 percent on Tuesday on signs of rising supply and concern that global economic growth and demand for fuel will fall victim to the U.S.-China trade war.

EMEA Base OiL Report Week: 30/10/18 

Base oil prices softened over the past week in response to an oversupply that is growing for some grades, particularly API Group I grades within Europe. The situation is being exacerbated by plentiful supplies of Group II being offered as replacement for Group I. Some refiners talked of cutting Group I production, but this hasn’t happened to any significant extent, and with inventories growing, producers and resellers are offering large discounts for Group I solvent neutrals. Traders recounted calls from Group I suppliers offering availabilities for prompt November lifting with exceptionally attractive prices, some well below market levels. This is a reversal of normal trading practice, where traders contact sellers to check availabilities, prices and dates. Crude oil and feedstock prices steadied this week at levels lower than recent highs.  Dated deliveries of Brent traded at $77.20 per barrel for December front month, around $2.50 below last week’s post. West Texas Intermediate dropped around $2.00 to $67.15/bbl, now also for December front month. ICE LS gas oil was little changed from last week, recording a price of $709 per metric ton for November front month. These prices were established from London ICE trading late Monday. read more

Today’s Economic Events

06:30 FR 3Q A GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.2%
07:45 FR SEP Households Consumption (MoM) exp: -0.4% prev: 0.8%
08:55 GE OCT Unemployment Change (k) exp: -25.9 prev: -23
08:55 GE OCT Unemployment Rate exp: 5.1% prev: 5.1%
10:00 EC 3Q A Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.37% prev: 0.4%
10:00 EC OCT Business Climate Indicator exp: 1.13 prev: 1.21
10:00 EC OCT Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence exp: 110.1 prev: 110.9
10:00 EC OCT Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence exp: 3.8 prev: 4.7
10:00 EC OCT F Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -2.7 prev: -2.7
13:00 GE OCT P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.4%
13:00 GE OCT P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 2.2%
14:00 US OCT Consumer Confidence exp: 135.2 prev: 138.4 read more

General Market Comment

US indices gave up early gains on Monday as the possibility of more U.S.- China tariffs and a slide in tech shares rattled the markets. Shares in the Media (-2.49%), Retailing (-2.43%) and Capital Goods (-2.29%) sectors were under the most pressure. On the economic data front, U.S. personal income increased 0.2% in September (0.4% estimate) compared to a revised 0.4% increase in August. Personal spending gained 0.4% in Sept, in-line with estimates vs a revised 0.5% gain in Aug. The S&P 500 (2,641.25) remains at levels below both its 20d moving average (2,787.34 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,852.49 – negative slope). read more

NEW YORK – Oil prices edged lower on Monday as Russia signaled output will remain high, but losses were limited ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iranian exports that are expected to reduce supplies when they come into effect in just under a week.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK SEP M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.2%
12:30 US SEP Personal Income exp: 0.4% prev: 0.3%
12:30 US SEP Personal Spending exp: 0.4% prev: 0.3%

General Market Comment

US indices continued their declines on Friday pressured by shares in the Retailing (-4.71%), Real Estate (-2.59%), Telecommunication Services (-2.53%) sectors. On the economic data front, 3Q GDP expanded 3.5%, above the 3.3% estimate compared to a prior reading of 4.2% which marks the strongest consecutive quarters of growth since 2014. U.S. personal spending increased 4% in the same period, also above its 3.3% estimate vs a gain of 3.8% last quarter. Finally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index weakened to 98.6 in Oct (99 estimate) compared to 99 in Sept. The S&P 500 (2,658.69) remains at levels below both its 20d moving average (2,801.50 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,856.66 – negative slope). read more