Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE MAY Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 22.7
07:00 GE MAY Exports (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: -0.3%
07:00 GE MAY Imports (MoM) exp: -0.7% prev: 2.6%
07:00 GE MAY Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 20.1 prev: 20.1
20:00 US MAY Consumer Credit (B USD) exp: NA prev: 9.3
General Market Comment
US indices closed higher at the end of the week after positive jobs data. Shares in the Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (+1.95%), Software & Services (+1.29%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.24%) sectors. On the economic data front, Nonfarm payrolls increased 213K in June while estimates were for an increase of 195K compared to a revised 244K in May. The unemployment rate climbed up to 4% in June (+3.8% estimate) compared to +3.8% in May. Finally, the US trade balance narrowed to -$43.1B in May (-$43.6B estimate) compared to a revised -$46.1B in April. The S&P 500 (2,759.82) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,750.24 – negative slope) and stays above 50d moving average (2,723.91 – positive slope). European markets are expected to start on a positive note.
Today’s Economic Events
US JUN Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.3%
US JUN Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.8
07:00 GE MAY Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -1%
07:45 FR MAY Trade Balance (M) exp: -4884 prev: -4954
13:30 US JUN Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: 18 prev: 18
13:30 US JUN Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 196 prev: 223
13:30 US JUN Unemployment Rate exp: 3.8% prev: 3.8%
13:30 US MAY Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -44.5 prev: -46.2
US indices closed higher on Thursday lifted by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.64%), Household & Personal Products (+1.73%), Food, Beverage & Tobacco (+1.56%) sectors. On the economic data front, the ADP national employment report showed U.S. companies added 177K jobs in June (estimated +190K) from +189K in the prior month. Initial jobless claims increased to 231K on June 30 (expected 225K) from 228K previously while continuing claims increased to 1.74M on June 23, below the estimate of 1.72M, from 1.71M in the prior period. Furthermore, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index increased to 57.6 in the week ending June 1 from 57.3 in the past week. Also, the Markit service PMI increased to 56.5 in June, meeting the estimate, from 56.8 in May. Finally, the FOMC released the minutes on the June 13th meeting in which participants “noted that uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified and were concerned that such uncertainty and risks eventually could have negative effects on business sentiment and investment spending”. Some participants also raised the concern that “a prolonged period in which the economy operated beyond potential could give rise to heightened inflationary pressures or to financial imbalances that could lead eventually to a significant economic downturn”. The S&P 500 (2,736.61) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,750.77 – negative slope) but stays above 50d moving average (2,721.50 – positive slope). European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
13:15 US JUN ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 192 prev: 178
13:30 US W25 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 224 prev: 227
14:45 US JUN F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 56
14:45 US JUN F Markit Services PMI exp: 56.5 prev: 56.5
15:00 US JUN ISM – Non Manufacturing exp: 58.4 prev: 58.6
16:00 US W25 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: -5259 prev: -9891
19:00 US JUN 13 Minutes FOMC Meeting exp: prev:
General Market Comment
US markets were closed on Wednesday to observe Independence Day. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage applications fell 0.5% last week for a second consecutive week. All eyes are on Thursday’s jobs report. The top performing sector of the week so far is Telecommunication Services (+3.11%) while the worst is Automobiles & Components (-4.27%). The S&P 500 (2,713.22) is still below both its 20d moving average (2,752.55 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,7189.46 – positive slope). European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
Base oil prices in Europe, the Middle East and Africa appear to have stabilized, reaching a plateau with no clear pressure either upward or down. Several factors are at play: Crude oil have risen again, which should lend strength to base oils, but demand is falling for most types of base oil, which of course tends to tamp down prices. In addition, there appear to be no gaps in the supply chain. Crude prices have risen mainly due to lower inventories in the United States and mounting effects of resuming sanctions against Iran. Dated deliveries of Brent crude posted yesterday in London at $77.35 per barrel for September front month, some $3.50 higher than last week. West Texas Intermediate climbed some $5 to $73.90/bbl for August settlement. ICE LS gas oil also moved up to $660 per metric ton, around $20/t higher than last week, still for July settlement.
08:50 FR JUN F Markit Composite PMI exp: 55.6 prev: 55.6
08:50 FR JUN F Markit Services PMI exp: 56.4 prev: 56.4
09:00 EU JUN F Markit Composite PMI exp: 54.8 prev: 54.8
09:00 EU JUN F Markit Services PMI exp: 55 prev: 55
General Market Comment
US indices closed lower Tuesday in a short trading session before the Independence day holiday pressured by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.92%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.41%) and Banks (-1.38%) sectors. On the economic data front, factory orders increased by 0.4% in May, estimated staying flat compared to -0.4% in the prior month. Durable goods orders decreased by 0.4% (estimated -0.5%) in May from -1% in the previous month. The S&P 500 (2,713.22) is still below both its 20d moving average (2,752.55 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,7189.46 – positive slope). European markets are expected to open on a negative note.
US JUN Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 17 prev: 16.8
07:45 FR MAY Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -54.3
10:00 EC MAY Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.1%
15:00 US MAY F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: -0.3%
15:00 US MAY F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: -0.6%
15:00 US MAY Factory Orders exp: 0% prev: -0.8%