Month: September 2018

EMEA Base Oil Report Week: 25/9/18

Base oil prices in Europe, the Middle East and Africa were steady this week despite plenty of speculation about where the markets are headed. Some pundits have suggested that rising crude oil costs could push base oils upward, while others contend that loose supply will hold down values.

With availability so ample, sellers could find it difficult to convince buyers to accept mark-ups, although some suppliers are loathe to let margins be further compressed.

Crude and feedstock values strengthened the past few days, with dated deliveries of Brent crude rising to $81.00 per barrel for November front month, a new recent high, while West Texas Intermediate crude has broken through the $70 barrier to post at $72.30/bbl, now also for November settlement. ICE LS Gas Oil rose to $704 per metric ton for October front month. These prices were established from London ICE trading late yesterday. read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Monday. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (-2.13%), Consumer Durables & Apparel (-1.9%) and Real Estate (-1.89%) sectors closed lower while shares in the Energy (+1.47%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.81%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.76%) sectors ended in the green zone. On the economic data front, the Chicago Federal National Activity index remained unchanged MoM in August at 0.18 (estimated 0.2). In other news, the Dallas Federal Manufacturing Activity index slightly diminished to 28.1 in September (forecasted 31) from 30.9 in August. The S&P 500 (2,919.37) remains above its 20d moving average (2,899.50 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,859.75 – positive slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 24.09.18

Oil prices could rise towards $100 per barrel towards the end of the year or by early 2019 as sanctions against Iran bite, commodity merchants Trafigura and Mercuria said Monday at an industry conference in Singapore. Near on 2m barrels per day (bpd) of crude could be taken out of the market as a result of U.S. sanctions against Iran by Q4 end, according to Daniel Jaeggi, president of commodity merchant Mercuria Energy Trading, making a crude price spike to $100 a barrel possible. read more

Today’s Economic Events

09:00 GE SEP IFO – Business Climate exp: 103.1 prev: 103.8
09:00 GE SEP IFO – Current Assessment exp: 106.1 prev: 106.4
09:00 GE SEP IFO – Expectations exp: 100.3 prev: 101.2

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed to finish the week on Friday even though the Dow reached an all-time high and the S&P500 reached an intraday-high. Shares in the Retailing (-0.64%), Automobiles & Components (-0.62%) and Banks (-0.61%) sectors ended lower while shares in the Consumer Services (+0.98%), Telecommunication Services (+0.98%) and Energy (+0.72%) sectors ended in positive territory. On the economic data front, Markit US manufacturing PMI reached 55.6 as a preliminary estimate in September (estimated 55) from 54.7 in August. On the other hand, Markit US services PMI diminished to 52.9 in a preliminary estimate in September (forecasted 55) compared to 54.8 in the previous month. Finally, Markit US composite PMI came out to 53.4 in a preliminary estimate in September vs. 54.7 a month earlier. The S&P 500 (2,929.67) remains above its 20d moving average (2,897.26 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,857.39 – positive slope). read more

Base/Precious Metals Snap: 21.09.18

Base metals prices in late China trade were broadly up during Asian morning trading on Friday, with the complex supported by fresh buying amid a weaker dollar and easing trade tensions between the United States and China. Gains were seen in Copper, Nickel and Iron ore. Gold rallied as did Palladium in the precious metals complex.

Today’s Economic Events

07:45 FR 2Q F GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
07:45 FR 2Q F Wages (QoQ) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
08:15 FR SEP P Markit Composite PMI exp: 54.7 prev: 54.9
08:15 FR SEP P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 53.4 prev: 53.5
08:15 FR SEP P Markit Services PMI exp: 55.3 prev: 55.4
09:00 EU SEP P Markit Composite PMI exp: 54.5 prev: 54.5
09:00 EU SEP P Markit Manufacturing exp: 54.5 prev: 54.6
09:00 EU SEP P Markit Services PMI exp: 54.4 prev: 54.4
09:30 UK AUG Public Finances (PSNCR) (B GBP) exp: NA prev: -19.2
09:30 UK AUG Public Sector Net Borrowing (B GBP) exp: 2.9 prev: -2.9
14:45 US SEP P Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 54.7
14:45 US SEP P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 54.9 prev: 54.7
14:45 US SEP P Markit Services PMI exp: 55.1 prev: 54.8 read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed higher on Thursday, boosted by shares in the Household & Personal Products (+1.45%), Software & Services (+1.34%) and Food, Beverage & Tobacco (+1.22%) sectors. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims reached 201k in week ended September 15th (estimated 210k) from 204k in the previous week. Continuing claims came out to 1.645M in week ended September 8th (forecasted 1.705M) compared to 1.696M a week earlier. In other news, the Philadelphia Federal Business Outlook increased to 22.9 in September (expected 18) vs. 11.9 in August. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index improved to 60.2 in week ended September 16th from 59 in the prior week. In addition, the Leading Index improved by 0.4% in August (estimated 0.5%) vs. 0.6% in July. Finally, existing home sales remained unchanged MoM at 5.34M in August (expected 5.37M). The S&P 500 (2,930.75) remains above its 20d moving average (2,893.63 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,854.76 – positive slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 20.09.18

EMEA Base Oil Report Week: 18/9/18

Base oil markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa had a quiet week in terms of buying activity but were exceptionally busy for shipping fixtures, perhaps in response to deals settled at the beginning of September.

Sellers apparently were willing to offer attractive rates after the summer recess, during which stocks of Group I base oils swelled to such an extent that they were almost desperate to clear inventory. Certainly many cargoes were bought for export to all corners of Africa and as far away as the Far East. read more