Month: October 2018

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower on Wednesday, pressured by shares in the Consumer Durables & Apparel (-1.25%), Retailing (-1.01%) and Materials (-0.83%) sectors. On the economic data front, mortgage applications fell by 7.1% in week ended October 12th from a decline of 1.7% in the previous week. Housing starts diminished by 5.3% MoM to 1.201M units in September (estimated 1.21M) from 1.268M units in the prior month. In other news, building permits slightly lowered to 1.241M in September (forecasted 1.275M) vs. 1.249M a month earlier. Finally, The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on September 26th: Some participants are worried that the growth of leveraged loans in the nonbank sector may pose a risk to financial stability while other participants are concerned with the historical pattern of the inverted yield curve which has often preceded recessions in the U.S.. In order to keep inflation below the objective of 2%, participants agreed that it might be necessary to temporarily raise the federal funds rate “above their assessments of its longer-run level”. The S&P 500 (2,809.21) remains at levels below both its 20d moving average (2,870.25 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,872.90 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 17.10.18

OPEC has urged its members not to mention oil prices when discussing policy in a break from the past, as the oil producing group seeks to avoid the risk of U.S. legal action for manipulating the market, sources close to OPEC said.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK SEP CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.7%
09:30 UK SEP PPI – Input (MoM) exp: 0.9% prev: 0.5%
09:30 UK SEP PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
10:00 EC SEP Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
13:30 US SEP Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1270 prev: 1249
13:30 US SEP Housing Starts (k) exp: 1213 prev: 1282
15:30 US W40 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 5987
19:00 US SEP 26 Minutes FOMC Meeting exp: prev:

General Market Comment

US indices closed higher on Tuesday as the Nasdaq was the biggest winner with a 2.89% jump. Shares in the Software & Services (+3.38%), Health Care Equipment & Services (+3.28%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+3.21%) sectors closed in the green zone. On the economic data front, industrial production increased by 0.3% MoM in September (estimated 0.2%) from an increase of 0.4% in August. In other news, Capacity Utilization remained unchanged YoY at 78.1% in September, slightly lower than expectations of 78.2%. The S&P 500 (2,809.92) remains at levels below both its 20d moving average (2,875.23 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,873.89 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 16.10.18

Oil prices rose in cautious trade on Tuesday as expectations of higher U.S. shale output and inventories vied with worries that crude supply from the Middle East could be disrupted by looming U.S. sanctions on Iran and growing tensions with top producer Saudi Arabia.

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

BY RAY MASSON

Loose availability continues to hold back prices for many base oils throughout Europe, the Middle East and African. Expanding supply and weak demand are squeezing margins for API Group I oils, while the flow of Group II in Europe continues to swell.

Given their inability to raise prices, a number of refiners are reckoned to be cutting Group I production in favor of diesel and jet fuel, and this may affect year-end sales.

Crude oil and feedstock costs continued their retreat this week, as dated deliveries of Brent crude posted yesterday at $80.30 per barrel for December settlement and West Texas Intermediate dipped to $70.30/bbl for November front month. ICE LS gas oil fell around $25 per metric ton to $711 per metric ton, also for November front month. These prices were from London ICE trading late Monday. read more

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE AUG Import Prices (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.2%
09:30 UK AUG Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 4% prev: 4%
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 17556
10:00 GE OCT Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: 74.5 prev: 76
10:00 GE OCT Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -12.2 prev: -10.6
14:15 US SEP Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 78.2% prev: 78.08%
14:15 US SEP Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.4%
15:00 US OCT NAHB Housing Market exp: 67 prev: 67 read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Monday as the Russell 2000 is the only US index to close positive. Shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.88%), Software & Services (-1.6%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.32%) sectors ended in the red zone while shares in the Household & Personal Products (+0.98%), Automobiles & Components (+0.94%) and Food, Beverage & Tobacco (+0.79%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, the Empire Manufacturing index advanced to 21.1 in October (estimated 20) from 19 in the previous month. Retail sales improved by 0.1% MoM in September (forecasted 0.6%) compared to 0.1% a month earlier. In other news, the September budget surplus jumped to $119.1B (forecasted $83B) from $7.9B in the previous year. Finally, the budget deficit for FY2018 expanded by 17% YoY to $779B (largest deficit since 2012). The S&P 500 (2,750.79) continues to stay below both its 20d moving average (2,879.95 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,874.70 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 15.10.18

Oil prices steadied on Monday, supported by geopolitical tension over the disappearance of a Saudi journalist, which has stoked worries about supplies from the world’s top crude exporter, but weighed by a falling equities market and concern over long-term demand outlook.

Today’s Economic Events

US SEP Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: 58 prev: -214
13:30 US OCT Empire Manufacturing exp: 21 prev: 19
13:30 US SEP Retail Sales exp: 0.7% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US SEP Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.4% prev: 0.3%
15:00 US AUG Business Inventories exp: 0.5% prev: 0.6%