Month: November 2018

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 30.11.18

NEW YORK – Oil prices fell further on Friday as swelling inventories depressed sentiment despite widespread expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia would agree some form of production cut next week.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE OCT Import Prices (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
07:00 GE OCT Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.1%
07:45 FR NOV P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: 0.1%
07:45 FR NOV P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: 0.1%
07:45 FR OCT Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.3%
10:00 EC OCT Euro-Zone: Unemployment Rate exp: 8% prev: 8.1%
14:45 US NOV Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: 57.6 prev: 58.4

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower on Thursday, pressured by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.08%), Software & Services (-1.02%) and Diversified Financials (-0.89%) sectors. On the economic data front, personal income increased by 0.5% in October (estimated 0.4%) from 0.2% in September while personal spending advanced by 0.6% in October (forecasted 0.4%) compared to 0.2% a month earlier. In other news, initial jobless claims reached 234k in week ended November 24th (expected 220k) from 224k in the prior week. Continuing claims increased to 1.71M in week ended November 17th (estimated 1.663M) vs. 1.66M the week before. Also, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index decreased to 60.6 in week ended November 25th compared to 61.3 a week earlier. Pending home sales fell by 2.6% MoM in October (forecasted 0.5%) from an increase of 0.7% in September. Finally, the Fed released the meeting minutes of its November 7-8th meeting stating that an appreciation of the dollar may pose a risk for domestic economic growth and inflation and reiterated the need for further gradual increase in the benchmark rate. Finally, the FOMC also discussed the idea of targeting the Overnight Bank Funding Rate instead of the Federal Funds Rate. The S&P 500 (2,737.76) remains above its 20d moving average (2,721.38 – positive slope) but stays below 50d moving average (2,778.45 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 29.11.18

NEW YORK – Oil reversed course and rose as much as 3 percent on Thursday, after industry sources said Russia had accepted the need to cut production, together with OPEC ahead of its meeting next week. U.S. crude oil and natural gas proved reserves rose to record highs in 2017, driven by stronger energy prices and the continuing development of shale formations, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday. Crude reserves increased 6.4 billion barrels, or 19.5 percent, to 39.2 billion barrels at year-end 2017, marginally higher than the previous record of 39 billion barrels set as far back as 1970. read more

Today’s Economic Events

07:45 FR 3Q P GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
07:45 FR OCT Households Consumption (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: -1.7%
08:55 GE NOV Unemployment Change (k) exp: -10.6 prev: -12
08:55 GE NOV Unemployment Rate exp: 5.1% prev: 5.1%
09:30 UK OCT M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.3%
10:00 EC NOV Business Climate Indicator exp: 0.97 prev: 1.01
10:00 EC NOV Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence exp: 109.1 prev: 109.8
10:00 EC NOV Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence exp: 2.4 prev: 3
10:00 EC NOV F Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -3.9 prev: -3.9
13:00 GE NOV P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
13:00 GE NOV P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US OCT Personal Income exp: 0.4% prev: 0.2%
13:30 US OCT Personal Spending exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US W46 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 221 prev: 224
19:00 US NOV 8 Minutes FOMC Meeting exp: prev: read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed higher on Wednesday after the Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell, mentioned that interest rates are close to neutral. Shares in the Retailing (+3.96%), Software & Services (+3.91%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+3.36%) sectors jumped higher. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications rose by 5.5% in week ended November 23rd from a decline of 0.1% in the previous week. In other news, wholesale inventories advanced by 0.7% MoM in a preliminary estimate in October (estimated 0.4%) compared to an increase of 0.6% in September. Personal consumption grew by 3.6% in a second reading in 3Q (forecasted 3.9%) from 4% in the first reading and 3.8% in 2Q. Also, annualized GDP in a second reading came out to 3.5%, in-line with estimates and unchanged vs the first reading, from 4.2% in 2Q. Finally, new home sales added 544k units in October (forecasted 575k) compared to 597k in September. The S&P 500 (2,743.79) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,720.08 – positive slope) but stays below 50d moving average (2,781.86 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

13:30 US 3Q S GDP (QoQ) exp: 3.5% prev: 3.5%
13:30 US 3Q S GDP Price (QoQ) exp: 1.7% prev: 1.7%
13:30 US 3Q S Personal Consumption exp: NA prev: 4%
13:30 US OCT P Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.4%
15:00 US OCT New Home Sales (k) exp: 581 prev: 553
15:30 US W46 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 4851

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (-2.22%), Materials (-1.25%) and Consumer Durables & Apparel (-1.13%) sectors were under pressure while shares in the Telecommunication Services (+2.04%), Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (+1.1%) and Transportation (+1.07%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, the FHFA house price index improved by 0.2% MoM in September (estimated 0.4%) from an increase of 0.4% in the previous month. In other news, the Conference Board consumer confidence index declined to 135.7 in November, in-line with estimates, from 137.9 in October. The S&P 500 (2,682.17) remains below its 20d moving average (2,717.02 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,785.07 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 27.11.18

NEW YORK – Crude Oil prices steadied on Tuesday, supported by expectations that crude exporters would agree to cut output at an OPEC meeting next week, but weighed down by signs of increased global production. Meanwhile agency KEMP reported a slowing of the unwind in long positions by speculative traders.

EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report

Base oil markets are bracing for what could be a stormy December, with prices already under downward pressure and inventories higher than most suppliers would want.

API Group I leads the way in the availability stakes as weakening demand is pushing stocks to unacceptable levels, perhaps setting the stage for a dramatic year-end sell-off. Group II base oils are feeling the effects of perception that supply may be going long and prices starting to dip. Group III availabilities are also increasing, although sellers of this grade maintain that the take-up is good enough to avoid a glut. read more