Month: November 2018

EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report

Availabilities continue to mount in some sectors of the base oil market within the European, Middle Eastern and African regions, with API Group I and Group III within Europe leading the way in this context.

Group II supply and demand looks fairly balanced at this time, with no indicators this will change before year-end, and possibly not until after new production comes on stream in Rotterdam during the second quarter of 2019. Even after this start-up, the market may not alter drastically from the supply side, due to a downturn in the number of import cargoes necessary to cover an ever expanding part of the market. read more

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE OCT F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
07:00 GE OCT F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
07:45 FR 3Q P Wages (QoQ) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
09:30 UK SEP Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 4% prev: 4%
10:00 GE NOV Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: 65.6 prev: 70.1
10:00 GE NOV Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -24.7 prev: -24.7
19:00 US OCT Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: NA prev: 119

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower on Monday as the Dow dropped by over 600pts. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-4.61%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-4.44%) and Retailing (-3%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, there was no major data released yesterday. The S&P 500 (2,726.11) breaks below its 20d moving average (2,739.67 – flat slope) and stays below 50d moving average (2,825.59 – negative slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 12.11.18

NEW YORK – Oil prices rose about 1 percent on Monday, breaking a stretch of losses, after Saudi Arabia said OPEC and its partners believed demand was softening enough to warrant an output cut of 1 million barrels per day next year.

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower to finish the week on Friday. Shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (-2.1%), Automobiles & Components (-1.85%) and Retailing (-1.8%) sectors ended in the red zone. On the economic data front, PPI final demand improved by 0.6% MoM in October (estimated 0.2%) from 0.2% in the previous month. Wholesale inventories advanced by 0.4% MoM in September (forecasted 0.3%) compared to 0.3% a month earlier. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index reached a preliminary estimate of 98.3 in November (expected 98) vs. 98.6 in October. The S&P 500 (2,781.01) remains above its 20d moving average (2,740.90 – flat slope) but stays below 50d moving average (2,829.05 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 09.11.18

MOSCOW – Russian energy majors are putting pressure on Western oil buyers to use euros instead of dollars for payments and introducing penalty clauses in contracts as Moscow seeks to enhance it’s protection against possible new U.S. sanctions.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK 3Q P GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.6% prev: 0.4%
09:30 UK SEP Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.2%
09:30 UK SEP Manufacturing Production (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.2%
09:30 UK SEP Trade Balance in Goods (M GBP) exp: -11306 prev: -11195
09:30 UK SEP Trade Balance Non EU (M GBP) exp: -3888 prev: -4219
13:30 US OCT PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
13:30 US OCT Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
15:00 US NOV P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 97.8 prev: 98.6
15:00 US SEP F Wholesale Inventories exp: 0.4% prev: 0.3% read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Thursday. Shares in the Energy (-2.2%), Media (-1.27%) and Automobiles & Components (-0.93%) sectors were under pressure while shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.42%), Commercial & Professional Services (+0.38%) and Diversified Financials (+0.37%) sector ended on a positive note. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims reached 214k in week ended November 3rd, in-line with estimates, down slightly from 215k a week earlier. Continuing claims slightly fell to 1.623M in week ended October 27th (forecasted 1.634M) compared to 1.631M in the previous week. Finally, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate to the range of 2-2.25%. The Fed mentioned that the economy has been rising at a “strong” rate and expects “further gradual” increases in the federal funds rate in the near future. The S&P 500 (2,806.83) remains above its 20d moving average (2,740.20 – negative slope) but stays below 50d moving average (2,831.50 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE SEP Current Account (B EUR) exp: 20.2 prev: 15.3
07:00 GE SEP Exports (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
07:00 GE SEP Imports (MoM) exp: 0.8% prev: -2.4%
07:00 GE SEP Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 19.4 prev: 17.1
07:45 FR SEP Trade Balance (M) exp: -5841 prev: -5632
13:30 US W43 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 214 prev: 214
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.25% prev: 2.25%

General Market Comment

US indices closed higher on Wednesday after the Democrats took over the House at the midterm elections, resulting in the best rally after a midterm election since 1982. Shares in the Retailing (+4.09%), Software & Services (+3.36%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+3.09%) sectors jumped higher. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications decreased by 4% in week ended November 2 (vs -2.5% in the prior week). The S&P 500 (2,813.89) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,736.26 – negative slope) but stays below 50d moving average (2,833.64 – negative slope). read more