Month: January 2019

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Thursday. Shares in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-1.83%), Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (-1.57%) and Telecommunication Services (-1.14%) sectors lost momentum while shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+5.12%), Automobiles & Components (+1.98%) and Transportation (+1.58%) sectors gained traction. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims decreased to 199k in week ended January 19th (estimated 218k) from 212k in the previous week. Continuing claims declined to 1.713M in week ended January 12th (forecasted 1.73M) compared to 1.737M in the prior week. In other news, the Markit US manufacturing PMI increased to 54.9 in a preliminary estimate in January (expected 53.5) from 53.8 in December. The Markit US services PMI slightly decreased to 54.2 in a preliminary estimate in January (estimated 54) compared to 54.4 in the prior month while the Markit US composite PMI slightly improved to 54.5 in a preliminary estimate in January vs. 54.4 in the previous month. Also, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index declined to 57.4 in week ended January 20th from 58.1 a week earlier. Finally, the Leading index decreased by 0.1% in December, in-line with forecasts, compared to an improvement of 0.2% in November. The S&P 500 (2,642.33) stays above its 20d moving average (2,568.53 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,616.20 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

US DEC Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1284 prev: 1328
US DEC Housing Starts (k) exp: 1255 prev: 1256
US DEC Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: -8 prev: -205
US DEC Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
US DEC Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
US NOV Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0.6%
US NOV Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
US NOV Factory Orders exp: 0.2% prev: -2.1%
US NOV Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.2 prev: -55.5
08:15 FR JAN P Markit Composite PMI exp: 50.8 prev: 48.7
08:15 FR JAN P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50 prev: 49.7
08:15 FR JAN P Markit Services PMI exp: 50.4 prev: 49
09:00 EU JAN P Markit Composite PMI exp: 51.3 prev: 51.1
09:00 EU JAN P Markit Manufacturing exp: 51.3 prev: 51.4
09:00 EU JAN P Markit Services PMI exp: 51.6 prev: 51.2
12:45 EC ECB: Rates decision exp: 0% prev: 0%
13:30 US W2 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 220 prev: 213
14:45 US JAN P Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 54.4
14:45 US JAN P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 53.5 prev: 53.8
14:45 US JAN P Markit Services PMI exp: 53.4 prev: 54.4
15:00 US DEC Leading Indicators exp: -0.1% prev: 0.2%
16:00 US W2 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: -122 prev: -2683 read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Wednesday. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (-1.61%), Energy (-1%) and Transportation (-0.79%) sectors closed lower while shares in the Household & Personal Products (+2.75%), Telecommunication Services (+1.11%) and Utilities (+1.08%) sectors ended on a positive note. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications decreased by 2.7% in week ended January 18th from a rise of 13.5% in the previous week. In other news, the FHFA house price index improved by 0.4% MoM in November (estimated 0.3%) from an increase of 0.4% in October. The S&P 500 (2,638.70) stays above its 20d moving average (2,553.97 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,619.49 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

07:45 FR JAN Business Confidence Indicator exp: 103 prev: 104
07:45 FR JAN Production Outlook Indicator exp: NA prev: -10
15:00 EC JAN A Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -6.4 prev: -6.2

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower on Tuesday as weak data from China and the International Monetary Fund are growing fears of a global economic slowdown. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.76%), Retailing (-2.54%) and Capital Goods (-2.4%) sectors took a hit. On the economic data front, existing home sales fell to 4.99M units in December (estimated 5.24M) from 5.32M units in November. The S&P 500 (2,632.90) stays above its 20d moving average (2,542.86 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,623.00 – negative slope). European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report

Base oil markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa are moving across the board toward potential oversupply, mimicking global markets that are following the same trend.

This was not the outlook forecast during the last quarter of 2018, when many predicted that API Group II and Group III demand would expand fast enough to take up new production coming on the scene. Group I was seen as the one category susceptible to weaker demand due to long-term declines in usage.

Forecasts of recovering demand have not borne out yet. Some suppliers insist supply-demand balances will still tighten when several plants close for maintenance turnarounds during the first half of the year. read more

Today’s Economic Events

US DEC Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1284 prev: 1328
US DEC Housing Starts (k) exp: 1254 prev: 1256
US DEC Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: -8 prev: -205
US DEC Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
US DEC Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
US NOV Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0.6%
US NOV Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
US NOV Factory Orders exp: 0.2% prev: -2.1%
US NOV Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.2 prev: -55.5
09:30 UK DEC Public Finances (PSNCR) (B GBP) exp: NA prev: 4.4
09:30 UK DEC Public Sector Net Borrowing (B GBP) exp: 1.1 prev: 6.3
09:30 UK NOV Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 4.1% prev: 4.1%
10:00 GE JAN Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: 43.3 prev: 45.3
10:00 GE JAN Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -19.2 prev: -17.5
15:00 US DEC Existing Home Sales (M) exp: 5.3 prev: 5.3 read more

General Market Comment

US indices were closed on Monday to celebrate Martin Luther King Day. On Friday, the US indices closed higher to finish the week, as China reportedly offered a path to eliminate its trade imbalance, according to Bloomberg. Shares in the Consumer Durables & Apparel (+2.38%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.26%) and Transportation (+2.18%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, industrial production improved by 0.3% MoM in December (estimated 0.2%) from a rise of 0.4% in November. Capacity utilization slightly increased to 78.7% in December (forecasted 78.5%) from 78.6% in the previous month. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 90.7 in a preliminary estimate in January (expected 96.8) compared to 98.3 a month earlier. The S&P 500 (2,670.71) stays above its 20d moving average (2,525.45 – flat slope) and 50d moving average (2,625.45 – negative slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE DEC Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 0.1%

General Market Comment

US indices closed higher to finish the week on Friday, as China reportedly offered a path to eliminate its trade imbalance, according to Bloomberg. Shares in the Consumer Durables & Apparel (+2.38%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.26%) and Transportation (+2.18%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, industrial production improved by 0.3% MoM in December (estimated 0.2%) from a rise of 0.4% in November. Capacity utilization slightly increased to 78.7% in December (forecasted 78.5%) from 78.6% in the previous month. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 90.7 in a preliminary estimate in January (expected 96.8) compared to 98.3 a month earlier. The S&P 500 (2,670.71) stays above its 20d moving average (2,525.45 – flat slope) and 50d moving average (2,625.45 – negative slope). read more