Month: February 2019

General Market Comment

U.S. indices closed lower on Thursday, dragged by shares in the Automobiles & Components (-3.51%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.16%) and Energy (-2.13%) sectors. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims fell to 234K in week ended February 2 (estimated 221K) from 253K in the previous week, and continuing claims dropped to 1.736M in week ended January 26 (forecasted 1.733M) from 1.778M a week earlier. The S&P 500 (2,706.05) stays above its 20d moving average (2,658.15 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,614.76 – positive slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE DEC Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 1% prev: -1.9%
07:45 FR DEC Trade Balance (M) exp: NA prev: -5099
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US W4 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 223 prev: 253
20:00 US DEC Consumer Credit (B USD) exp: 16.8 prev: 22.1

General Market Comment

U.S. indices closed slightly lower on Wednesday, pressured by shares in the Media (-1.73%), Retailing (-0.8%) and Energy (-0.77%) sectors. On the economic data front, trade deficit narrowed to $49.3B in November (estimated $54.0B) from $55.7B in October. The S&P 500 (2,731.61) stays above its 20d moving average (2,652.10 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,613.29 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bullish against all of its major pairs on Wednesday. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications declined by 2.5% in week ended February 1st from a decrease of 3% in the previous week. In other news, the trade deficit reached $49.3B in November (estimated $54B) compared to $55.7B a month earlier. read more

EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report

Base oil prices throughout all regions continue to weaken amid poor demand and plentiful supplies of all grades. New capacity is only exacerbating the situation.

Some refiners are looking to trim base oil production rates, and others have planned maintenance turnarounds looming, so markets have some chance to re-balance during spring, normally one of the peak buying periods. Recognizing that they have plenty of purchasing options, many buyers are reluctant to commit to long-term contracts, and this has led to a general increase in spot trade. read more

Today’s Economic Events

US DEC Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1284 prev: 1322
US DEC Housing Starts (k) exp: 1255 prev: 1256
US DEC New Home Sales (k) exp: 583 prev: 657
US DEC Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
US DEC Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
08:50 FR JAN F Markit Composite PMI exp: 48 prev: 47.9
08:50 FR JAN F Markit Services PMI exp: 47.7 prev: 47.5
09:00 EU JAN F Markit Composite PMI exp: 50.7 prev: 50.7
09:00 EU JAN F Markit Services PMI exp: 50.8 prev: 50.8
10:00 EC DEC Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: -1.3% prev: 0.6%
14:45 US JAN F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 54.5
14:45 US JAN F Markit Services PMI exp: NA prev: 54.2
15:00 US JAN ISM – Non Manufacturing exp: 56.8 prev: 58 read more

General Market Comment

U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, led by shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.92%), Software & Services (+1.75%) and Media (+1.46%) sectors. On the economic data front, factory orders declined 0.6% MoM in November (vs +0.3% estimated, -2.1% in October). Also, final readings of November durable goods orders increased 0.7% MoM in November (vs 1.5% expected, +0.8% previously estimated). The S&P 500 (2,724.87) stays above its 20d moving average (2,634.784 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,609.74 – flat slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

US 4Q A GDP (QoQ) exp: 2.6% prev: 3.4%
US 4Q A GDP Price (QoQ) exp: 1.7% prev: 1.8%
US 4Q A Personal Consumption exp: 3.7% prev: 3.5%
US DEC Personal Income exp: 0.5% prev: 0.2%
US DEC Personal Spending exp: 0.3% prev: 0.4%
10:00 EC DEC Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: -0.5% prev: -0.3%
15:00 US NOV F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.3% prev: -0.3%
15:00 US NOV F Durable Goods Orders exp: 1.9% prev: 0.8%
15:00 US NOV Factory Orders exp: 0.2% prev: -2.1%

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Friday. Shares in the Retailing (-2.54%), Food & Staples Retailing (-1.57%) and Automobiles & Components (-0.74%) sectors closed lower while shares in the Energy (+1.83%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.49%) and Insurance (+1.06%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, change in nonfarm payrolls reached 304k jobs in January (estimated 165k) from 222k in the previous month. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4% in January (forecasted 3.9%) vs. 3.9% in December. In other news, the Markit US manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in January, as expected, while ISM manufacturing improved to 56.6 in January (estimated 54) from 54.3 in December. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index increased to 91.2 in January (forecasted 90.7) vs. 90.7 in the prior month. The S&P 500 (2,706.53) stays above its 20d moving average (2,625.19 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,609.06 – flat slope). read more

Today’s Economic Events

US JAN Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.4%
US JAN Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.7
US JAN Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 17.2 prev: 17.5
07:45 FR DEC Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -95.6
08:50 FR JAN F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 51.1 prev: 51.2
09:00 EU JAN F Markit Manufacturing exp: 50.5 prev: 50.5
13:30 US JAN Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: 17 prev: 32
13:30 US JAN Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 147 prev: 312
13:30 US JAN Unemployment Rate exp: 3.9% prev: 3.9%
14:45 US JAN F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 54.7 prev: 54.9
15:00 US DEC Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
15:00 US JAN F U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 91.2 prev: 90.7
15:00 US JAN ISM – Manufacturing exp: 54.2 prev: 54.3
15:00 US JAN ISM – Price Paid exp: NA prev: 54.9 read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Thursday even though the Dow had its best January in the last 30 years. Shares in the Materials (-1.54%), Banks (-1.21%) and Software & Services (-0.52%) sectors took a hit while shares in the Media (+4.13%), Telecommunication Services (+2.16%) and Utilities (+2.08%) sectors ended in green territory. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims jumped to 253k in week ended January 26th (estimated 215k) from 200k in the previous week while continuing claims increased to 1.782M in week ended January 19th (forecasted 1.721M) vs. 1.713M a week earlier. Employment cost index improved by 0.7% in 4Q (expected 0.8%) compared to 0.8% in the previous quarter. In other news, the Chicago PMI fell to 56.7 in January (estimated 61.5) from 63.8 in December. Also, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index remained unchanged WoW at 57.4 in week ended January 27th. Finally, new home sales jumped to 657k in November (forecasted 570k) compared to 562k in October. The S&P 500 (2,704.10) stays above its 20d moving average (2,612.26 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,609.66 – flat slope). read more