Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
Today’s Economic Events
09:30 UK FEB Public Finances (PSNCR) (B GBP) exp: NA prev: -25.4
09:30 UK FEB Public Sector Net Borrowing (B GBP) exp: -0.6 prev: -15.8
09:30 UK FEB Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.5% prev: 1.2%
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
12:30 US MAR Philadelphia Fed. exp: 4.5 prev: -4.1
12:30 US W10 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 225 prev: 229
14:00 US FEB Leading Indicators exp: 0.1% prev: 0%
15:00 EC MAR A Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -7.1 prev: -7.4
U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (-2.87%), Banks (-2.72%) and Insurance (-1.66%) sectors ended in the red zone while shares in the Media (+1.48%), Retailing (+1.07%) and Energy (+0.89%) sectors gained traction. In other news, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at a range of 2.25%-2.50% and lowered its median forecast of future rates to 2.375% from 2.875% for 2019, implying that interest rate would stay unchanged rather than increasing it twice. Also, 2020 median rate forecast was trimmed to 2.625% from 3.125%. The S&P 500 (2,834.23) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,794.52 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,724.28 – positive slope).
European markets are expected to start on a positive note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 67.15 Our preference: long positions above 67.15 with targets at 68.20 & 68.45 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 67.15 look for further downside with 66.75 & 66.50 as targets. Comment: a support base at 67.15 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE FEB Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.4%
09:30 UK FEB CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: -0.8%
09:30 UK FEB PPI – Input (MoM) exp: 0.6% prev: -0.1%
09:30 UK FEB PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0%
14:30 US W10 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -3862
18:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.5% prev: 2.5%
US indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Transportation (-1.36%), Utilities (-1.18%) and Insurance (-0.89%) sectors ended on a negative note while shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.28%), Automobiles & Components (+1.14%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.98%) sectors gained strength. On the economic data front, factory orders improved by 0.1% in January (estimated 0.3%), the same pace as in December. Also, durable goods orders increased by 0.3% in January (forecasted 0.4%) after advancing by 1.2% in December.
The S&P 500 (2,832.57) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,792.55 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,718.79 – positive slope).
European markets are expected to open on a positive note.
API Group I prices are stabilizing across Europe, the Middle East and Africa due to an uptick in demand and less availability of material. Meanwhile Group II values in Europe have fallen and Group IIIs are under pressure because of imports of unapproved grades and aggressive pricing for new Group II output within the region.
Crude oil and feedstock costs firmed the past few days. Dated deliveries of Brent crude are now at $67.40 per barrel for May front month settlement, around $1 higher than last week. West Texas Intermediate rose some $2 to $58.95/bbl for April front month. ICE LS gas oil slipped to $606 per metric ton for April front month. These prices are established from ICE London trading late Monday.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 67.20 Our preference: long positions above 67.20 with targets at 67.85 & 68.15 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 67.20 look for further downside with 66.95 & 66.70 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside. |
Today’s Economic Events
09:30 UK JAN Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 4% prev: 4%
10:00 GE MAR Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: 12.8 prev: 15
10:00 GE MAR Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -11 prev: -13.4
14:00 US JAN F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: -0.1%
14:00 US JAN F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: 0.4%
14:00 US JAN Factory Orders exp: 0.3% prev: 0.1%
US indices closed higher on Monday, lifted by shares in the Energy (+1.39%), Retailing (+1.36%) and Banks (+1.31%) sectors. On the economic data front, the NAHB housing market index remained unchanged at 62 in March (estimated 63).
The S&P 500 (2,832.94) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,789.91 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,712.78 – positive slope).
European markets are expected to open on a flat note.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs on Monday with the exception of the CAD and the GBP. On the economic data front, the NAHB housing market index remained unchanged at 62 in March (estimated 63).
The Euro was bullish against all of its major pairs except for the AUD. The euro zone trade balance excess widened to E17B in January (E15B expected) from E16B a month earlier. According to Rightmove, UK house prices increased by 0.4% in March after a 0.7% rise in February.
The Australian dollar was higher against all of its major pairs.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 66.75 Our preference: long positions above 66.75 with targets at 67.60 & 68.10 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 66.75 look for further downside with 66.35 & 66.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. |