Month: March 2019

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE FEB Wholesale Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.7%
10:00 EC FEB Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
12:30 US MAR Empire Manufacturing exp: 9.1 prev: 8.8
13:15 US FEB Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 78.4% prev: 78.22%
13:15 US FEB Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -0.6%
14:00 US MAR P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 95.7 prev: 93.8

US indices closed mixed on Thursday. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (-1.68%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-0.87%) and Materials (-0.79%) sectors closed on a negative note while shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.7%), Banks (+0.68%) and Insurance (+0.42%) sectors gained traction. On the economic data front, import price index increased by 0.6% MoM in February (estimated 0.3%) from an improvement of 0.1% in January. New home sales declined to 607k in January (forecasted 622k) compared to 652k a month earlier. In other news, initial jobless claims slightly advanced to 229k in week ended March 9th (expected 225k) from 223k in the previous week while continuing claims increased to 1.776M in week ended March 2nd (estimated 1.763M) compared to 1.758M in the prior week. Finally, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index decreased to 60.8 in week ended March 10th vs. 62.1 a week earlier. 

The S&P 500 (2,808.48) stays above its 20d moving average (2,783.20 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,698.83 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start-open on a positive-negative-flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 67.10 Our preference: long positions above 67.10 with targets at 68.30 & 68.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 67.10 look for further downside with 66.50 & 66.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE FEB F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
07:00 GE FEB F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
07:45 FR FEB F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0%
07:45 FR FEB F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
12:30 US W9 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 224 prev: 223
14:00 US JAN New Home Sales (k) exp: 619 prev: 621

U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, led by shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.49%), Transportation (+1.25%) and Energy (+1.09%) sectors. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications increased by 2.3% in week ended March 8th from a decline of 2.5% in the prior week. In other news, PPI final demand improved by 0.1% in February (estimated 0.2%) from a decrease of 0.1% in January. Durable goods orders advanced by 0.4% in a preliminary estimate in January (forecasted -0.4%) compared to an increase of 1.3% a month earlier. Finally, construction spending advanced by 1.3% in January (expected 0.5%) from -0.8% in December. The S&P 500 (2,810.92) stays above its 20d moving average (2,780.43 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,692.80 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to open on a positive note. read more

Base oil demand in Europe, the Middle East and Africa finally showed signs of taking off as a number of API Group I producers reported no longer having stocks in tank that needed to be moved out.

In addition, temporary maintenance shutdowns at a couple plants could further tighten supply. Group II demand is also positive, but prices for them are being treated roughly for both contract and spot transactions. Maybe this is the inevitable result of new capacity (ExxonMobil’s new plant in Rotterdam) hitting a market that was already flush with supply, but some players insist it is merely a matter of perception. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.35 Our preference: long positions above 66.35 with targets at 67.40 & 67.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 66.35 look for further downside with 66.05 & 65.60 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC JAN Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 1% prev: -0.9%
12:30 US FEB PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
12:30 US FEB Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
12:30 US JAN P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
12:30 US JAN P Durable Goods Orders exp: -0.4% prev: 1.2%
14:00 US JAN Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -0.6%
14:30 US W9 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: 2373 prev: 7069

U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Capital Goods (-1.14%), Transportation (-0.64%) and Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-0.34%) sectors were under pressure while shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.92%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.63%) and Utilities (+0.62%) sectors gained some strength. On the economic data front, CPI rose 1.5% YoY in February (vs +1.6% expected, +1.6% in January) and core CPI grew 2.1% (vs 2.2% expected, +2.2% in January). In other news, the NFIB small business optimism index rose to 101.7 in February (estimated 102.5) from 101.2 in January. The S&P 500 (2,791.52) stays above its 20d moving average (2,777.12 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,686.29 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.05 Our preference: long positions above 66.05 with targets at 67.35 & 67.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 66.05 look for further downside with 65.60 & 65.20 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.