Month: April 2019

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK MAR CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.5%
09:30 UK MAR PPI – Input (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.6%
09:30 UK MAR PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
10:00 EC FEB Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 1548
10:00 EC MAR Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.9% prev: 1%
13:30 US FEB Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.3 prev: -51.1
15:00 US FEB Wholesale Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 1.2%
15:30 US W14 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 7029 read more

U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.86%), Insurance (+1.75%) and Banks (+1.35%) sectors. On the economic data front, industrial production declined 0.1% MoM in March (estimated +0.2%, +0.1% in February) and capacity utilization fell to 78.8% (forecasted 79.2%) from 79.0%. Also, the NAHB housing market index rose to 63 in April from 62 a month earlier. The S&P 500 (2,907.06) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,860.12 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,808.90 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

Base oil markets around Europe, the Middle East and Africa appeared to stabilize the past few days, but a sentiment of underlying weakness persists. Group I prices showed signs of leveling off, but Group II sellers are aggressively protecting or seeking to expand their market shares while the Group III segment shows signs of tightening for the moment but looks like a buyers’ market long term. 

Recent run-ups in crude and feedstock costs have only created further problems for base oil producers, who have talked for some time of trimming output. Some are now considering heavy discounts to move stocks out of tank. The media has seized on renewed fighting in Libya as critical to future crude prices, but in reality the country’s current output is too small to make it a significant factor. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.30 Our preference: short positions below 71.30 with targets at 70.80 & 70.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 71.30 look for further upside with 71.60 & 71.85 as targets. Comment: a break below 70.80 would trigger a drop towards 70.60.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK FEB Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 3.9% prev: 3.9%
10:00 GE APR Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: 8.2 prev: 11.1
10:00 GE APR Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: 0.8 prev: -3.6
14:15 US MAR Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 79.1% prev: 79.13%
14:15 US MAR Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0%
15:00 US APR NAHB Housing Market exp: 63 prev: 62

U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, pressured by shares in the Transportation (-0.98%), Banks (-0.81%) and Automobiles & Components (-0.8%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 10.1 in April (estimated 8.0) from 3.7 in March. The S&P 500 (2,905.58) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,856.39 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,805.26 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note.

Foreign Exchange read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.75 Our preference: short positions below 71.75 with targets at 71.15 & 70.90 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 71.75 look for further upside with 72.05 & 72.45 as targets. Comment: as long as 71.75 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Today’s Economic Events

13:30 US APR Empire Manufacturing exp: 7.4 prev: 3.7

U.S. indices closed higher to finish the week on Friday, boosted by shares in the Banks (+2.4%), Diversified Financials (+1.78%) and Media (+1.52%) sectors. On the economic data front, import price index rose 0.6% MoM in March (estimated +0.4%, +0.1% in February). In other news, the University of Michigan Sentiment index dropped to 96.9 in a preliminary estimate in April (forecasted 98.2) from 98.4 a month earlier. The S&P 500 (2,907.41) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,852.76 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,801.28 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.25 Our preference: short positions below 71.25 with targets at 70.80 & 70.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 71.25 look for further upside with 71.50 & 71.75 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 71.25 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 70.80 remains high