Month: May 2019

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC APR Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.7% prev: 0.7%
15:00 US APR Leading Indicators exp: 0.2% prev: 0.4%
15:00 US MAY P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 97.6 prev: 97.2

U.S. indices closed higher on Thursday, lifted by shares in the Software & Services (+1.8%), Materials (+1.34%) and Retailing (+1.23%) sectors. On the economic data front, housing starts jumped 5.7% YoY to 1.235M in April (estimated 1.209M) from 1.168M in March while building permits rose 0.6% MoM to 1.296M in April (expected 1.289M) compared to 1.288M a month earlier. Initial jobless claims decreased to 212k in week ended May 11 (forecasted 220k) from 228k a week earlier while continuing claims decreased to 1.66M in week ended May 4 (estimated 1.673M) compared to 1.688M in the prior week. The S&P 500 (2,876.23) stays below its 20d moving average (2,901.87 – negative slope) but breaks above 50d moving average (2,866.29 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.45 Our preference: long positions above 71.45 with targets at 72.55 & 73.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 71.45 look for further downside with 71.00 & 70.55 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Today’s Economic Events

06:30 FR 1Q Unemployment Change (k) (QoQ) exp: NA prev: -90
06:30 FR 1Q Unemployment Rate exp: 8.5% prev: 8.5%
10:00 EC MAR Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 17938
13:30 US APR Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1290 prev: 1288
13:30 US APR Housing Starts (k) exp: 1210 prev: 1139
13:30 US MAY Philadelphia Fed. exp: 9.2 prev: 8.5
13:30 US W18 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 220 prev: 228

U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, boosted by shares in the Media (+2.51%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.1%) and Household & Personal Products (+1.06%) sectors. On the economic data front, retail sales declined 0.2% MoM in April (forecasted +0.2%, +1.7% in March). Also, the Empire Manufacturing Index jumped to 17.8 in May (estimated 8.0) from 10.1 in April. In other news, industrial production decreased 0.5% MoM in April (expected to remain flat, +0.2% in March). The S&P 500 (2,850.96) stays below its 20d moving average (2,903.07 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,864.19 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

An air of quiet concern circulated among base oil suppliers this week as trading remained cooled by Mayday holidays and Ramadan and demand still below expected levels.

The recent rebounds in demand for API Group I oils appears to have been short lived, partly because of economic doldrums in multiple key markets. Some producers are trying to impose small increases that they blame on feedstock run-ups.

Group II supplies are plentiful, and the market is being described as saturated, meaning that keen prices are needed to move volume. This has contributed to downward price pressure on these oils so that the efforts to boost Group I levels raises the prospect of a narrowing price spread between the two grades. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 71.50 Our preference: short positions below 71.50 with targets at 70.70 & 70.15 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 71.50 look for further upside with 72.00 & 72.60 as targets. Comment: as long as 71.50 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.

Today’s Economic Events

07:45 FR APR F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
07:45 FR APR F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
10:00 EC 1Q P Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US APR Retail Sales exp: 0.3% prev: 1.6%
13:30 US APR Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.7% prev: 1.2%
13:30 US MAY Empire Manufacturing exp: 8 prev: 10.1
14:15 US APR Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 78.7% prev: 78.8%
14:15 US APR Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.1%
15:00 US MAR Business Inventories exp: 0% prev: 0.3%
15:00 US MAY NAHB Housing Market exp: 64 prev: 63
15:30 US W18 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -3963 read more

U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday, led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.06%), Software & Services (+1.52%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.45%) sectors. On the economic data front, the NFIB small business optimism index rose to 103.5 in April (estimated 102.0) from 101.8 in the previous month. Also, the import price index increased by 0.2% MoM in April (forecasted +0.7%). In other news, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) “revised its price forecast for Brent crude oil upward” as it now expects OPEC production to decline by 1.9M b/d in 2019 vs. its previous forecast of 1M b/d. The S&P 500 (2,834.41) stays below its 20d moving average (2,905.88 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,862.96 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to open on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 70.90 Our preference: short positions below 70.90 with targets at 69.70 & 69.35 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 70.90 look for further upside with 71.20 & 71.65 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 70.90 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 69.70 remains high.