Month: May 2019

US indices closed mixed on Thursday. Shares in the Energy (-1.71%), Automobiles & Components (-1.14%) and Software & Services (-0.9%) sectors felt some pressure while shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+0.72%), Household & Personal Products (+0.66%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.6%) sectors were on the rise. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims remained unchanged WoW at 230k in week ended April 27th (estimated 215k) while continuing claims slightly increased to 1.671M in week ended April 20th (forecasted 1.66M) compared to 1.654M the prior week. Also, factory orders improved by 1.9% in March (expected 1.6%) from -0.3% a month earlier while durable goods orders advanced by 2.6% in March vs. a decline of 1.6% in February. Finally, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index slightly decreased to 60.4 in week ended April 28th from 60.8 a week earlier. The S&P 500 (2,917.52) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,910.66 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,848.78 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

Base oil prices across Europe, the Middle East and Africa remain weak with continuing pressure from a general oversupply affecting all sectors to varying degrees.

Group I numbers are under twofold pressures, one being plentiful availabilities of all grades. The other is that prices have been depressed to the point where refiners are considering whether or not to continue producing, at least at current levels. Rising crude and feedstock costs are squeezing margins, and sellers are unable to respond to raise prices due to generous availabilities. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 72.35 Our preference: short positions below 72.35 with targets at 71.70 & 71.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 72.35 look for further upside with 72.75 & 73.30 as targets. Comment: as long as 72.35 is resistance, expect a return to 71.70.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE MAR Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.4% prev: 0.5%
08:50 FR APR F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 49.7 prev: 49.6
09:00 EU APR F Markit Manufacturing exp: 47.8 prev: 47.8
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US 1Q P Nonfarm Productivity exp: 2% prev: 1.9%
13:30 US 1Q P Unit Labor Costs exp: 1.3% prev: 2%
13:30 US W16 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 216 prev: 230
15:00 US MAR F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: 0.4%
15:00 US MAR F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: 2.7%
15:00 US MAR Factory Orders exp: 1.4% prev: -0.5% read more

U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its Federal Funds rate unchanged at 2.25%-2.50%, as expected, and reaffirmed its commitment to be “patient” on future rate moves. Shares in the Energy (-2.17%), Materials (-1.84%) and Household & Personal Products (-1.83%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, the ADP reported that the U.S. economy added 275K private jobs in April (estimated +180K, +151K in March). In other news, the final readings of April Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI posted 52.6 (previously estimated 52.4). The ISM manufacturing index dropped to 52.8 in April (expected 55.0) from 55.3 in March. Also, construction spending declined 0.9% MoM in March (estimated to remain flat). Finally, the Federal Reserve decided to keep its Federal Funds rate unchanged at 2.25%-2.5%, as expected, as it reaffirmed its commitment to be “patient” on future rate moves. The Federal Open Market Committee mentioned that overall and core inflation on a 12-month basis have gone down and stated that the economic activity rose at a solid rate. The S&P 500 (2,923.73) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,908.46 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,846.13 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 72.35 Our preference: short positions below 72.35 with targets at 71.20 & 70.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 72.35 look for further upside with 72.75 & 73.30 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.

Today’s Economic Events

US APR Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 17 prev: 17.5
09:30 UK MAR M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.3%
13:15 US APR ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 180 prev: 129
14:45 US APR F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 52.7 prev: 52.4
15:00 US APR ISM – Manufacturing exp: 55 prev: 55.3
15:00 US APR ISM – Price Paid exp: 55.6 prev: 54.3
15:00 US MAR Construction Spending (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 1%
15:30 US W16 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 5479
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.5% prev: 2.5% read more

U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Media (-3.21%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.24%) and Automobiles & Components (-0.79%) sectors were under pressure while shares in the Utilities (+1.67%), Household & Personal Products (+1.59%) and Food, Beverage & Tobacco (+1.21%) sectors ended on a positive note. On the economic data front, employment cost index rose 0.7% QoQ in 1Q (as expected). The MNI Chicago PMI dropped to 52.6 in April (estimated 58.5) from 58.7 in March. Also, pending home sales increased by 3.8% MoM in March (forecasted +1.5%). Finally, the Conference Board consumer confidence index climbed to 129.2 in April (expected 126.8) from 124.2 in March. The S&P 500 (2,945.83) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,905.63 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,843.25 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more