EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report 11.06.19

The conundrum facing base oil refiners may have been partly solved by the sudden slide in crude and feedstock prices, which alleviated the need to raise base oil prices in order to attain acceptable margins.

With ample supply of all types of base oils and demand being relatively low, pressure for markups was becoming critical, particularly for the API Group I segment, where margins had been squeezed to move surplus quantities.

Group I prices have now steadied after producers cut back on output and large quantities reportedly were earmarked for export destinations this week. Both buyers and sellers appear to be in a happier place. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap 11.06.19

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.15

Our preference: short positions below 63.15 with targets at 61.80 & 61.35 in extension.

Alternative scenario: above 63.15 look for further upside with 63.70 & 64.10 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Economic Calendar 11.06.19

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK APR Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 3.8% prev: 3.8%
13:30 US MAY PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US MAY Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%

General Market Comment 11.06.19

US indices closed higher on Monday, led by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.34%), Retailing (+1.66%) and Automobiles & Components (+1.44%) sectors. On the economic data front, there was no news to report. The S&P 500 (2,886.73) stays above its 20d moving average (2,827.30 – flat slope) and its 50d moving average (2,871.90 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bullish against all of its major pairs on Monday. On the economic data front, there was no news to report.

The Euro was bullish against all of its major pairs with the exception of the USD. In Europe, UK GDP fell by 0.4% in April (-0.1% expected), its biggest monthly slide since March 2016, after a 0.1% decrease in March. Separately, the UK industrial production dropped by 2.7% in April (-1% anticipated) after a 0.7% increase a month earlier. 

The Australian dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap 10.06.19

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.05

Our preference: long positions above 63.05 with targets at 64.10 & 64.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 63.05 look for further downside with 62.60 & 62.10 as targets.

Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Economic Calendar 10.06.19

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK APR Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -0.9% prev: 0.7%
09:30 UK APR Manufacturing Production (MoM) exp: -1.1% prev: 0.9%
09:30 UK APR Trade Balance in Goods (M GBP) exp: -12808 prev: -13650
09:30 UK APR Trade Balance Non EU (M GBP) exp: -4390 prev: -4361

General Market Comment 10.06.19

US indices closed higher on Friday, led by shares in the Software & Services (+2.06%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.02%) and Retailing (+1.8%) sectors. On the economic data front, change in nonfarm payrolls fell to 75k in May (estimated 175k) from 224k in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained unchanged MoM at 3.6%, as expected. In other news, wholesale inventories improved by 0.8% in April (forecasted 0.7%) vs. a decline of 0.1% in March. The S&P 500 (2,873.34) stays above its 20d moving average (2,827.03 – flat slope) and crosses above its 50d moving average (2,870.48 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap 07.06.19

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 61.85

Our preference: long positions above 61.85 with targets at 62.80 & 63.40 in extension.

Alternative scenario: below 61.85 look for further downside with 61.40 & 60.65 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance

Economic Calendar 07.06.19

Today’s Economic Events

US MAY Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.3%
US MAY Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.7
07:00 GE APR Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 30.2
07:00 GE APR Exports (MoM) exp: -1.1% prev: 1.6%
07:00 GE APR Imports (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: 0.6%
07:00 GE APR Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -0.7% prev: 0.5%
07:00 GE APR Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 19.6 prev: 22.6
07:45 FR APR Trade Balance (M) exp: NA prev: -5324
13:30 US MAY Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: 4 prev: 4
13:30 US MAY Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 170 prev: 263
13:30 US MAY Unemployment Rate exp: 3.6% prev: 3.6%
15:00 US APR F Wholesale Inventories exp: 0.5% prev: 0.7%
20:00 US APR Consumer Credit (B USD) exp: 13.4 prev: 10.3 read more

General Market Comment 07.06.13

US indices closed mixed on Thursday as the U.S. is considering delaying the tariffs on Mexico. Shares in the Transportation (-0.78%), Automobiles & Components (-0.71%) and Consumer Durables & Apparel (-0.27%) sectors ended in the negative zone while shares in the Energy (+1.74%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.47%) and Consumer Services (+1.26%) sectors closed higher. On the economic data front, the trade deficit grew slightly to $50.8B in April (estimated $50.7B) from $50B in the previous month. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 218K for week ended June 1, above estimates of 215K, from 215K in the previous week. Moreover continuing claims reached 1.682M for week ended May 25 (estimated 1.66M) from 1.657M in the previous week. Lastly, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index edged up to 61.7 in the week ended June 2 compared with 60.8 in the previous week.

The S&P 500 (2,843.49) has returned to levels above its 20d moving average (2,826.90 – flat slope), but is still below its 50d moving average (2,869.12 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more