Month: July 2019

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK JUN Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: -0.3%
13:30 US JUL Philadelphia Fed. exp: 4.9 prev: 0.3
13:30 US W27 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 216 prev: 209
15:00 US JUN Leading Indicators exp: 1.4% prev: 0%

U.S. indices were lower on Wednesday pressured by shares in the Transportation (-4.75%), Capital Goods (-1.72%) and Insurance (-1.45%) sectors. On the economic data front, housing starts dropped to an annualized rate of 1.25M in June (estimated 1.26M) from 1.27M in May. The Fed Beige book reported that economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace and the outlook generally was positive, despite widespread concerns over trade-related uncertainty. The S&P 500 (2,984.42) stays above its 20d moving average (2,968.15 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,895.52 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 64.95 Our preference: short positions below 64.95 with targets at 63.80 & 63.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 64.95 look for further upside with 65.50 & 66.10 as targets. Comment: a break below 63.80 would trigger a drop towards 63.00.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK JUN CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.3%
09:30 UK JUN PPI – Input (MoM) exp: -0.9% prev: 0%
09:30 UK JUN PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
10:00 EC JUN Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US JUN Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1299 prev: 1299
13:30 US JUN Housing Starts (k) exp: 1259 prev: 1269
15:30 US W27 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -9499

U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday after President Donald Trump cast doubt on the trade progress between China and the U.S. The worst performing stocks were in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.17%), Energy (-1.13%) and Software & Services (-0.96%) sectors. On the economic data front, retail sales increased 0.4% MoM in June (vs +0.2% estimated, +0.4% in May). Industrial production was flat MoM in June (vs +0.1% estimated, +0.4% in May) while capacity utilization fell to 77.9% in June (vs 78.1% estimated) from 78.1% May. The NAHB Housing Market Index tipped up to 65 in July (estimated 64) from 64 June. The S&P 500 (3,004.04) stays above its 20d moving average (2,964.81 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,894.48 – positive slope).


European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

Base oil markets throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa are stable, but local issues are affecting prices and availabilities in some regions. Europe availabilities have tightened, and the tensions with Iran loom as a potential threat to raw material costs. 

API Group I values may be showing small signs of firming, since the supply scene remains constant and demand has solidified.

Group II is reportedly stable with ample availability, however there is a meeting within the EU Commission this week to consider extending the waiver of a 3.7 percent duty on imported Group II base oils. Private sources close to the commission have indicated that the waiver will be extended. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.85 Our preference: short positions below 66.85 with targets at 66.10 & 65.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 66.85 look for further upside with 67.25 & 67.65 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 66.85 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 66.10 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK MAY Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 3.8% prev: 3.8%
10:00 EC MAY Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 15672
10:00 GE JUL Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: 4.8 prev: 7.8
10:00 GE JUL Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -21.6 prev: -21.1
13:30 US JUN Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.5%
13:30 US JUN Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 0.5%
14:15 US JUN Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 78.1% prev: 78.07%
14:15 US JUN Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.4%
15:00 US JUL NAHB Housing Market exp: 64 prev: 64
15:00 US MAY Business Inventories exp: 0.4% prev: 0.5% read more

U.S. indices closed slightly positive to kick off earnings season in Monday’s trading lifted by shares in the Consumer Services (+0.67%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+0.65%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.62%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 4.3 in July (estimated 2.0) compared with a decline of 8.6 in the prior month when it reached lows not seen since late 2016. The S&P 500 (3,014.30) stays above its 20d moving average (2,959.10 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,893.32 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 67.00 Our preference: short positions below 67.00 with targets at 66.40 & 65.70 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 67.00 look for further upside with 67.30 & 67.65 as targets. Comment: a break below 66.40 would trigger a drop towards 65.70.