Month: July 2019

U.S. equity markets were closed on Thursday to observe Independence Day. The S&P 500 (2,995.82) stays above its 20d moving average (2,918.13 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,884.44 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was mixed against all its major pairs on Thursday. There was no economic news to report.

The Euro was bullish against all of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF. In Europe, the Germany PMI Construction index fell to 50 in June from 51.4 in May. New car registrations in the UK dropped by 4.9% in June YoY after a 4.6% slide a month earlier on the same basis.

The Australian dollar was under pressure against all of its major pairs except the NZD. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 62.90 Our preference: long positions above 62.90 with targets at 64.00 & 64.55 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 62.90 look for further downside with 62.25 & 61.40 as targets. Comment: the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50% but reversing up.

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC MAY Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: -0.4%

U.S. indices closed at record highs on Wednesday in a shortened trading session lifted by shares in the Household & Personal Products (+2.01%), Real Estate (+1.47%) and Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.28%) sectors. On the economic data front, ADP private jobs increased 102,000 in June (vs. +140,000 expected, +41,000 in May). Trade deficit widened to $55.5B in May (estimated $54.0B) from 51.2B deficit in April. The final readings of June Market Services PMI posted 51.5 in June (vs. 50.7 previously). The ISM Non-Manfacturing PMI dropped to 55.1 in June (vs. 56.0 expected) from 56.9 in May. Lastly, Factory orders declined 0.7% MoM in May (vs. -0.6% expected). The S&P 500 (2,995.82) stays above its 20d moving average (2,918.13 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,884.44 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.45 Our preference: short positions below 63.45 with targets at 62.25 & 61.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.45 look for further upside with 64.05 & 64.55 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 63.45 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 62.25 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

08:50 FR JUN F Markit Composite PMI exp: 52.9 prev: 52.9
08:50 FR JUN F Markit Services PMI exp: 53.1 prev: 53.1
09:00 EU JUN F Markit Composite PMI exp: 52.1 prev: 52.1
09:00 EU JUN F Markit Services PMI exp: 53.4 prev: 53.4
13:15 US JUN ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 134 prev: 27
13:30 US MAY Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -52.1 prev: -50.8
13:30 US W25 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 222 prev: 227
14:45 US JUN F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 50.6
14:45 US JUN F Markit Services PMI exp: NA prev: 50.7
15:00 US JUN ISM – Non Manufacturing exp: 56.1 prev: 56.9
15:00 US MAY F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: 0.3%
15:00 US MAY F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: -1.3%
15:00 US MAY Factory Orders exp: -0.1% prev: -0.8%
15:30 US W25 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -12788 read more

U.S. indices closed higher on Tuesday lifted by defensive stocks in the Telecommunication Services (+1.84%), Real Estate (+1.82%) and Utilities (+1.24%) sectors. On the economic data front, U.S. annualized total vehicle sales posted 17.3M in June (vs. 17.0M expected and 17.3M in May). The S&P 500 (2,973.01) stays above its 20d moving average (2,909.65 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,883.20 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

BY RAY MASSON

Base oil prices in Europe, the Middle East and Africa are mostly stable, with a few exceptions, thanks to lower crude and feedstock prices. That stability may already be coming under pressure, though, since crude prices have already rebounded.

API Group I prices are stable for now, with the threat of tightening supply minimized by the upcoming holiday season. Some sellers are starting to lift prices in offers, citing recent rises in raw material costs. These efforts are being strenuously contested by buyers, who are slowing down purchasing commitments while awaiting resumption of full trading in September. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 64.70 Our preference: long positions above 64.70 with targets at 66.10 & 66.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 64.70 look for further downside with 64.20 & 63.75 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Today’s Economic Events

US JUN Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: NA prev: 17.3
07:00 GE MAY Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: -1%
07:45 FR MAY Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -67.2
10:00 EC MAY Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.3%