Month: August 2019

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC JUN Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 23034
13:30 US JUL Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1270 prev: 1232
13:30 US JUL Housing Starts (k) exp: 1256 prev: 1253
15:00 US AUG P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 97.1 prev: 98.4

U.S. indices closed mixed on Thursday. Shares in the Food & Staples Retailing (+2.73%), Real Estate (+1.34%) and Household & Personal Products (+1.27%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Consumer Durables & Apparel (-2.34%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.85%) and Automobiles & Components (-1.5%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, Retail sales grew 0.7% MoM in July (estimated +0.3%), while Industrial Production fell 0.2% MoM in July (estimated +0.1%). The Empire Manufacturing index rose to 4.8 in August (estimated 2.0) from 4.3 in July, while the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook dropped to 16.8 (estimated 9.5) from 4.3. Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 220K in week ending August 10 (estimated 212K) from 211K in the prior week. The S&P 500 (2,847.60) trades below its 20d moving average (2,944.06 – negative slope) and below its 50d moving average (2,943.89 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.80 Our preference: short positions below 59.80 with targets at 58.20 & 57.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.80 look for further upside with 60.55 & 61.10 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 59.80 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 58.20 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK JUL Retail Sales (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 0.9%
13:30 US 2Q P Nonfarm Productivity exp: 1.4% prev: 3.4%
13:30 US 2Q P Unit Labor Costs exp: 1.9% prev: -1.6%
13:30 US AUG Empire Manufacturing exp: 2.3 prev: 4.3
13:30 US AUG Philadelphia Fed. exp: 9.5 prev: 21.8
13:30 US JUL Retail Sales exp: 0.3% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US JUL Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US W31 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 213 prev: 209
14:15 US JUL Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 77.8% prev: 77.92%
14:15 US JUL Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0%
15:00 US AUG NAHB Housing Market exp: 65 prev: 65
15:00 US JUN Business Inventories exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3% read more

U.S. indices were under pressure on Wednesday with the Dow posting its fourth-largest point drop of all time pressured by shares in the Banks (-4.29%), Automobiles & Components (-4.22%) and Energy (-4.12%) sectors. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note broke below the 2-year rate, an event that has been a reliable indicator of economic recessions. On the economic data front, import price rose 0.2% MoM in July (vs. -0.1% expected) and export price increased 0.2% (vs. -0.1% expected). The S&P 500 (2,840.60) trades below its 20d moving average (2,951.43 – negative slope) and below its 50d moving average (2,943.46 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap Daily

Pivot: 60.10 Our preference: long positions above 60.10 with targets at 61.05 & 61.50 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 60.10 look for further downside with 59.50 & 58.90 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events

06:30 FR 2Q Unemployment Change (k) (QoQ) exp: NA prev: -19
06:30 FR 2Q Unemployment Rate exp: NA prev: 8.4%
07:45 FR JUL F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: -0.2%
07:45 FR JUL F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: -0.2%
09:30 UK JUL CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 0%
09:30 UK JUL PPI – Input (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: -1.4%
09:30 UK JUL PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.1%
10:00 EC 2Q P Euro-Zone: GDP (QoQ) exp: 0.18% prev: 0.2%
10:00 EC JUN Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -1% prev: 0.9%
15:30 US W31 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 2385 read more

U.S. indices jumped on Tuesday after the U.S. decided to delay tariffs on some Chinese goods while removing products like cellphones and clothing off the list completely. Stocks in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+3.49%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.96%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.92%) sectors helped push indices higher. On the economic data front, CPI rose 1.8% YoY in July (vs. +1.7% expected and in June). The S&P 500 (2,926.32) trades below its 20d moving average (2,958.63 – negative slope) and below its 50d moving average (2,942.71 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

Buyers and sellers are thin on the ground this week throughout European, Middle Eastern and African base oil markets, but those still in attendance are working diligently to get deals done during August.

A number of significant sales were completed for shipments into West Africa, Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam and the United Kingdom from the Baltic. As many blenders in the U.K. prepare for Brexit, some are cautiously stocking up in case of changes in import duties that affect base oils. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 57.90 Our preference: long positions above 57.90 with targets at 59.10 & 59.50 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 57.90 look for further downside with 57.40 & 57.10 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.