Month: August 2019

U.S. indices closed down for the 4th time this week despite a positive opening reversing down on President Trump trade tariffs announcement. Banks (-3.4%), Consumer Durables & Apparel (-3.2%), Transportation (-2.55%) sectors fell sharply. President Trump tweeted: “We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. (…) U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining $300B of goods and products coming from China.” The S&P 500 (2,932.05) trades below its 20d moving average (2,993.83 – negative slope) but stays above its 50d moving average (2,927.56 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 61.20 Our preference: long positions above 61.20 with targets at 62.85 & 63.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 61.20 look for further downside with 60.50 & 60.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.

Today’s Economic Events

US JUL Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.2%
US JUL Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.6
10:00 EC JUN Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: -0.1%
10:00 EC JUN Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.3%
13:30 US JUL Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: 7 prev: 17
13:30 US JUL Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 160 prev: 224
13:30 US JUL Unemployment Rate exp: 3.7% prev: 3.7%
13:30 US JUN Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.7 prev: -55.5
15:00 US JUL F U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 98.3 prev: 98.4
15:00 US JUN F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: 1.2%
15:00 US JUN F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: 2%
15:00 US JUN Factory Orders exp: 0.7% prev: -0.7% read more

U.S. indices closed down for the 4th time this week despite a positive opening reversing down on President Trump trade tariffs announcement. Banks (-3.4%), Consumer Durables & Apparel (-3.2%), Transportation (-2.55%) sectors fell sharply. President Trump tweeted: “We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. (…) U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining $300B of goods and products coming from China.” The S&P 500 (2,953.56) trades below its 20d moving average (2,996.75 – negative slope) but stays above its 50d moving average (2,926.05 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 64.80 Our preference: short positions below 64.80 with targets at 63.90 & 63.35 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 64.80 look for further upside with 65.25 & 65.75 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events

US JUL Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 16.9 prev: 17.3
08:50 FR JUL F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50 prev: 50
09:00 EU JUL F Markit Manufacturing exp: 46.4 prev: 46.4
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US W29 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 214 prev: 206
14:45 US JUL F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50.4 prev: 50
15:00 US JUL ISM – Manufacturing exp: 52 prev: 51.7
15:00 US JUL ISM – Price Paid exp: 49 prev: 47.9
15:00 US JUN Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: -0.8% read more

U.S. indices fell sharply on Wednesday following the Fed first rate cut since 2008. All sectors ended in the red with Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-3.2%), Household & Personal Products (-2.24%), Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-2.06%) sectors declining the most. The Fed decided to cut rates by 0.25% citing that although there was broad based growth across sectors and good employment numbers, uncertainty about the outlook and sub 2% inflation growth warranted the decision. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate cut is not necessarily the start of an easing cycle. On the economic data front, ADP Employment Change was 156K in July (estimated +150K, +112K in June). The Chicago PMI dropped to 44.4 in July (estimated 51.0) from 49.7 in June. The S&P 500 (2,980.38) breaks below its 20d moving average (2,980.38 – positive slope) but stays above its 50d moving average (2,924.26 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more