Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
Today’s Economic Events
10:00 GE SEP Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: -15.1 prev: -13.5
10:00 GE SEP Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -36.7 prev: -44.1
14:15 US AUG Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 77.6% prev: 77.49%
14:15 US AUG Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.2%
15:00 US SEP NAHB Housing Market exp: 66 prev: 66
The Dow posted its first decline in 9 days amid fears that a rally in oil prices after an attack on oil production in Saudi Arabia could slow global economic growth. The attack shut down 5 per cent of global crude output. U.S. officials blamed Iran and President Donald Trump said Washington was “locked and loaded” to retaliate. Brent Crude and WTI Crude futures hit record volumes on the ICE and CME exchanges Monday as prices jumped over 12%. The previous volume record was set back on Nov 30, 2016 after OPEC agreed to an oil supply cut for the first time in 8 years.
Looking at the S&P 500 intraday performance. Shares in the Energy (+3.29%), Real Estate (+1.02%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.2%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Automobiles & Components (-2.47%), Household & Personal Products (-1.87%) and Materials (-1.63%) sectors were under pressure. The S&P 500 (2,997.96) trades above its 20d moving average (2,938.88 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,950.15 – flat slope).
On the economic data front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 2.0 in September (vs. 4.0 estimated) from 4.8 in August. On Tuesday, we can expect industrial production to increase 0.2% MoM for August.
European markets are expected to open on a flat note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 68.50 Our preference: short positions below 68.50 with targets at 65.00 & 63.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 68.50 look for further upside with 69.85 & 71.95 as targets. Comment: the RSI has just broken down its overbought area (70%). |
Today’s Economic Events
13:30 US SEP Empire Manufacturing exp: 3.5 prev: 4.8
The DOW posted an eight-day winning streak on Friday amid positive sentiment regarding U.S.- China trade relations. Shares in the Banks (+1.42%), Transportation (+1.22%) and Materials (+1.14%) sectors traded higher while shares in the while shares in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-1.29%), Real Estate (-1.27%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.24%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, retail sales rose 0.4% MoM in August (vs. +0.2% expected). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 92.0 in September (vs. 90.8 expected) from 89.8 in August. On Monday traders anticipate the Empire Manufacturing Index to fell to 4.0 in September from 4.8 in the prior month. The S&P 500 (3,007.39) trades above its 20d moving average (2,933.42 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,950.00 – flat slope).
European markets are expected to start on a negative note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 59.85 Our preference: long positions above 59.85 with targets at 60.50 & 60.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 59.85 look for further downside with 59.20 & 58.65 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE AUG Wholesale Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.3%
10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 20612
13:30 US AUG Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.7%
13:30 US AUG Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 1%
15:00 US JUL Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0%
15:00 US SEP P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 90.8 prev: 89.8
U.S. indices are close to testing record highs after a strong bullish trading session on Thursday lifted by shares in the Software & Services (+0.86%), Household & Personal Products (+0.84%) and Commercial & Professional Services (+0.81%) sectors. Chinese importers have asked U.S. suppliers for a market in soybeans, pork and other farm goods which could be a signal that China may step up purchases of American agricultural products which has helped boosting optimism of a trade deal. The S&P 500 (3,009.57) trades above its 20d moving average (2,925.77 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,949.77 – flat slope).
On the economic data front, CPI rose 1.7% YoY in August (vs. +1.8% estimated and in July), while core CPI was up 2.4%, stronger than +2.3% expected and +2.2% in July. Jobless Claims fell to 204K (estimated 215K) for the week ended September 7 from 219K in the prior week. On Friday we can expect a MoM decrease in retail sales of 0.5%. The University of Michigan Sentiment for September is predicted to be 90.8, up from 89.8 in the prior month.
Crude Oil fell 1.12% marking a third day of declines after OPEC urged members to adhere to agreed upon production cuts. OPEC has been facing challenges balancing the supply market as supply from competitors continues to grow.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 61.65 Our preference: short positions below 61.65 with targets at 60.55 & 60.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 61.65 look for further upside with 62.25 & 62.80 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 61.65 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 60.55 remains high. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE AUG F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: -0.2%
07:00 GE AUG F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.1%
07:45 FR AUG F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
07:45 FR AUG F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: -1.6%
12:45 EC ECB: Rates decision exp: 0% prev: 0%
13:30 US AUG Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US AUG CPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US W35 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 215 prev: 217
19:00 US AUG Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: -192 prev: -120