Month: September 2019

U.S. indices pushed higher on Wednesday with the DOW posting its first six-day winning streak since June helped by stocks in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.63%), Telecommunication Services (+2.03%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.37%) sectors. On the economic data front, PPI rose 1.8% YoY in August (vs. +1.7% expected and in July). Wholesale Inventories grew 0.2% MoM in July (as expected). Looking at Thursday’s calendar, August CPI is expected to increase 1.8% YoY compared to 1.8% in July. Jobless Claims for the week ending September 7 are expected to be 220K according to Bloomberg, up 3K from the prior week. The S&P 500 (3,000.93) trades above its 20d moving average (2,916.98 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,949.04 – flat slope).

U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third day, following those in the euro zone bond market. The euro weakened to a one-week low against the dollar ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting which comes ahead of next week’s policy meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed is still expected to cut interest rates amid improving U.S. economic data. U.S. President Donald Trump pushed the Fed to cut interest rates to zero or into negative territory in a pair of Twitter posts on Wednesday.

European markets are expected to start on a positive. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.05 Our preference: short positions below 63.05 with targets at 62.55 & 62.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.05 look for further upside with 63.75 & 64.30 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

Today’s Economic Events

13:30 US AUG PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
13:30 US AUG Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
15:00 US JUL F Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.2%
15:30 US W35 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -4771

U.S. indices started Tuesday under pressure but rebounded off their lows following a report that China was considering a deal to purchase more U.S. agricultural goods ahead of the next trade meeting. Bond yields rallied into the close. Shares in the Telecommunication Services (+1.91%), Banks (+1.3%) and Energy (+1.29%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Commercial & Professional Services (-2.13%), Consumer Services (-1.92%) and Household & Personal Products (-1.82%) sectors saw downside pressure. Looking at crude oil, prices rallied to intraday highs before tanking after President Trump fired U.S. security adviser John Bolton which may ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran regarding Oil transport in the Strait. On the economic data front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism fell to 103.1 (expected 103.5) in August, the lowest level in four months, from 104.7 in July. Looking into Wednesday, traders will be eyeing key economic data regarding mortgage applications, PPI and wholesale inventories before the market opens. The S&P 500 (2,979.39) trades above its 20d moving average (2,913.25 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,948.31 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

Source: Lubes n’Greases

Base oil markets are steady this week, with few price pressures from the raw material side, given that fundamentals have remained relatively flat. There are pockets of activity developing, both in regional markets and also for export cargoes, which have been loaded for traditional receivers in markets such as West Africa.

Supply and demand of API Group are balanced, with reasonable availabilities of all grades, although some European sellers are not in a position to offer the full range of oils. Many bright stock producers are showing long positions with little uptake to clear stocks in tank. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 62.40 Our preference: long positions above 62.40 with targets at 63.25 & 64.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 62.40 look for further downside with 61.65 & 61.10 as targets. Comment: the break above 62.40 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 63.25.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK JUL Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 3.9% prev: 3.9%

U.S. indices closed mixed on Monday. Shares in the Banks (+3.15%), Automobiles & Components (+2.27%) and Energy (+1.85%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Software & Services (-1.58%), Commercial & Professional Services (-1.26%) and Household & Personal Products (-1.18%) sectors were in the red. On the economic data front, consumer credit increased $23.29B in July (vs. +$16.00B expected). The S&P 500 (2,978.43) trades above its 20d moving average (2,908.43 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,947.55 – positive slope).


European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 61.15 Our preference: long positions above 61.15 with targets at 62.40 & 63.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 61.15 look for further downside with 60.65 & 60.10 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE JUL Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 20.6
07:00 GE JUL Exports (MoM) exp: -0.6% prev: -0.1%
07:00 GE JUL Imports (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.7%
07:00 GE JUL Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 16.1 prev: 16.6
09:30 UK JUL Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: -0.1%
09:30 UK JUL Manufacturing Production (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: -0.2%
09:30 UK JUL Trade Balance in Goods (M GBP) exp: -1543757624 prev: -7009
09:30 UK JUL Trade Balance Non EU (M GBP) exp: NA prev: -186
20:00 US JUL Consumer Credit (B USD) exp: 16.2 prev: 14.6 read more