Month: September 2019

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

Base oil markets are getting back to some form of normality as buyers and sellers returned to work this week after summer holidays. Activity seems slow so far, but perhaps the coming days will yield some direction about the direction of the markets.

API Group I remains balanced despite a strike at a Northwestern European refinery. The strike had shortened availability, but gaps have been filled from alternative sources around Europe and the Baltic. It is too early to gauge whether demand will rise during the next few weeks, although sources said some blenders are back in buying mode and interested to establish supply contracts for next year for Group I grades. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.20 Our preference: short positions below 59.20 with targets at 58.10 & 57.75 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.20 look for further upside with 59.80 & 60.15 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 59.20 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 58.10 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.6%
14:45 US AUG F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: NA prev: 49.9
15:00 US AUG ISM – Manufacturing exp: 51.1 prev: 51.2
15:00 US AUG ISM – Price Paid exp: NA prev: 45.1
15:00 US JUL Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -1.3%

U.S. markets were closed on Monday to Observe Labor Day. Later today, the U.S. Commerce Department will release July construction spending (vs +0.3% MoM expected), and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post its August Manufacturing PMI (vs 51.2 expected). The S&P 500 (2,928.46) trades above its 20d moving average (2,892.93 – flat slope) but stays below its 50d moving average (2,945.05 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.30 Our preference: short positions below 59.30 with targets at 58.50 & 58.10 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.30 look for further upside with 59.70 & 60.30 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 59.30 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 58.50 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

08:50 FR AUG F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 51 prev: 51
09:00 EU AUG F Markit Manufacturing exp: 47 prev: 47

U.S. indices closed mixed to end the week on Friday. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+0.73%), Materials (+0.67%) and Banks (+0.61%) sectors moved higher while shares in the Household & Personal Products (-0.8%), Retailing (-0.63%) and Consumer Services (-0.63%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, U.S. personal spending increased 0.6% MoM in July (vs. +0.5% estimated), while personal income grew 0.1% (vs. +0.3% estimated). The MNI Chicago PMI rose to 50.4 in August (vs. 47.5 estimated) from 44.4 in July. The final readings of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index posted 89.8 in August (vs. 92.1 previously), the lowest level since October 2016. U.S. indices wrapped up the week with the biggest weekly gains since June amid trade tensions and recession fears. The S&P 500 (2,928.46) trades above its 20d moving average (2,892.93 – flat slope) but stays below its 50d moving average (2,945.05 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more