Month: October 2019

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE SEP Wholesale Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.8%
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.4%

US indices rallied on Friday after President Trump said the U.S. reached the first phase of a trade deal that delays tariff hikes that were set to start next week. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (+2.82%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.23%) and Transportation (+2.19%) sectors helped push U.S. indices to near record highs. The S&P 500 (2,970.27) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,960.94 – negative slope) and above 50d moving average (2,935.57 – flat slope).

On the economic data front, the US Import Price Index rose 0.2% MoM which was more than the unchanged estimate for September compared to a decline of 0.5% in August. The University of Michigan Sentiment index came in at 96.0 which was above the 92.0 estimate for the October preliminary reading compared to 93.2 in the September final reading. On Monday, no major economic news is expected.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.35 Our preference: long positions above 59.35 with targets at 60.70 & 61.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 59.35 look for further downside with 59.00 & 58.70 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE SEP F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0%
07:00 GE SEP F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: -0.1%
15:00 US OCT P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 92 prev: 93.2

US indices closed higher on trade optimism Thursday after a tweet from Trump said “Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House” The best performing stocks were in the , Banks (+1.46%), Automobiles & Components (+1.33%) and Energy (+1.28%) sectors. The S&P 500 (2,938.13) trades below its 20d moving average (2,962.80 – negative slope) but breaks above 50d moving average (2,935.35 – negative slope).

On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 210K which was lower than the 220K estimate for the week ended October 5th from a revised 220K the week before. Continuing Claims rose to 1684K which was higher than the 1651K estimate for the week ended September 28th from a revised 1655K the prior week. US CPI MoM reported unchanged missing the 0.1% estimate for September compared to 0.1% in August. On Friday, economists expect the US Import Price Index to be unchanged for September compared to a decline of 0.5% in August. The University of Michigan Sentiment is expected to come in at 92 for the October preliminary reading which is down 1.2 points from 93.2 in the September final reading.

European markets are expected to open on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 58.55 Our preference: short positions below 58.55 with targets at 57.80 & 57.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 58.55 look for further upside with 58.90 & 59.30 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 58.55 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 57.80 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE AUG Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 22.1
07:00 GE AUG Exports (MoM) exp: -1% prev: 0.8%
07:00 GE AUG Imports (MoM) exp: 0.6% prev: -1.6%
07:00 GE AUG Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 18.6 prev: 21.6
09:30 UK AUG Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.1%
09:30 UK AUG Manufacturing Production (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
09:30 UK AUG Trade Balance in Goods (M GBP) exp: -9977 prev: -9144
09:30 UK AUG Trade Balance Non EU (M GBP) exp: -2688 prev: -1932
13:30 US SEP Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US SEP CPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US W39 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 220 prev: 219 read more

US indices closed in the green on Wednesday for the first time this week lifted by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.7%), Software & Services (+1.51%) and Diversified Financials (+1.31%) sectors. On the economic data front, US Wholesale Inventories decreased 0.2% missing the 0.4% estimate for the August Final reading, down from 0.4% in the August preliminary reading. US MBA Mortgage Applications rose 5.2% last week compared to a gain of 8.1% in the prior week. The S&P 500 (2,919.4) trades below its 20d moving average (2,966.37 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,936.19 – negative slope).

On Thursday, economists expect Initial Jobless Claims to increase to 220K for the week ended October 5th from 219K the week before. Continuing Claims for the week ended September 28th is expected to be in line with the prior week at 1651K. Finally, US CPI MoM change for September is expected to be in line with the prior month at 0.1%.

Crude inventories grew more than expected last week, rising by 2.9 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 1.4 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

BY RAY MASSON

Base oil prices appear weaker across Europe, the Middle East and Africa except for the API Group II sector, where suppliers attempted to impose markups of around $10 per metric ton from Oct. 1.

That may seem an interesting move at a season when demand starts to wane, and some buyers are resisting, but sellers maintain that there is more than sufficient demand to justify such a move. Ultimately the market will decide whether these markups stick.

Group I prices have dipped in response to lower demand and steady availabilities of all grades, putting pressure on producers to discount on exports and sales within the region. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 58.40 Our preference: short positions below 58.40 with targets at 57.70 & 57.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 58.40 look for further upside with 58.90 & 59.20 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.