Month: October 2019

Today’s Economic Events

15:00 US AUG F Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.4%
15:30 US W39 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 3104
19:00 US SEP 18 Minutes FOMC Meeting exp: prev

U.S. indices were under pressure on Tuesday as trader optimism around the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks declined. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.89%), Automobiles & Components (-2.54%) and Banks (-2.36%) sectors got hurt the most. The U.S. expanded its trade blacklist to include some of China’s top artificial intelligence firms on Monday. China’s foreign ministry said to “stay tuned” for retaliation following the blacklist expansion. Crude Oil fell to a two month low on the news. The S&P 500 (2,893.06) trades below its 20d moving average (2,893.06 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,938.07 – negative slope).

On the economic data front, U.S. PPI rose 1.4% YoY in September (vs. +1.8% expected and in August), the lowest growth since November 2016, and the core PPI rose 2.0% (vs. +2.3% expected and in August), the weakest since July 2017. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 101.8 in September (vs. 102.0 estimated) from 103.1 in August. On Wednesday, investors will focus on the release of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes.

European markets are expected to open on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 57.70 Our preference: long positions above 57.70 with targets at 58.50 & 58.90 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 57.70 look for further downside with 57.20 & 56.70 as targets. Comment: a support base at 57.70 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

Today’s Economic Events

US SEP Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: NA prev: -200
20:00 US AUG Consumer Credit (B USD) exp: 16.2 prev: 23.3

US indices pushed higher on Friday lifted by shares in the Insurance (+2.32%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.04%) and Banks (+1.94%) sectors. On the economic data front, the US Trade Balance came in at -$54.9B which was wider than the -$54.5B estimate for August compared to -$54B in July. US Nonfarm Payrolls reached 136K missing the 145K estimate for September down from the revised 168K in August. The US Unemployment Rate came in at 3.5% beating the 3.7% estimate for September compared to 3.7% the previous month, this marks the lowest rate of unemployment in the last 5 decades. On Monday, no major economic news in expected. The S&P 500 (2952.01) trades below its 20d moving average (2,976.74 – negative slope) but breaks above 50d moving average (2,942.37 – negative slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 57.50 Our preference: long positions above 57.50 with targets at 58.30 & 58.60 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 57.50 look for further downside with 57.20 & 56.90 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Today’s Economic Events

US SEP Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.5%
US SEP Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.6
07:45 FR AUG Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -109.7
13:30 US AUG Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.5 prev: -54
13:30 US SEP Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: 3 prev: 3
13:30 US SEP Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 143 prev: 130
13:30 US SEP Unemployment Rate exp: 3.7% prev: 3.7%

US indices closed higher on Thursday after a volatile session lifted by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.89%), Energy (+1.26%) and Software & Services (+1.24%) sectors.

On the economic data front, Markit US Services PMI released in line with estimates at 50.9 for the September final reading, which is also in line with the preliminary reading compared to Tuesday’s disappointing manufacturing data. US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K beating the 215K estimate for the week ending September 28th, rising 4K from a revised 215K in the prior week. US Manufacturers New Orders came in at -0.1% for August which was higher than the -0.2% estimate compared to a 1.4% increase in July. US Durable Goods New Orders came in at 0.2% for the August final reading, which is in line with the August preliminary reading.

On Friday, economists expect the a US trade deficit of $54.5B for August compared to a deficit of $54.0B in July. US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase 16K to 146K for September from the previous 130K in August. The Unemployment rate for September is expected to be in line with the prior month at 3.7%.

The S&P 500 (2910.63) trades below both its 20d moving average (2,978.08 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,943.40 – negative slope).


European markets are expected to start-open on a positive-negative-flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 58.30 Our preference: short positions below 58.30 with targets at 57.20 & 56.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 58.30 look for further upside with 58.70 & 59.10 as targets. Comment: the RSI calls for a new downleg.

Today’s Economic Events

08:50 FR SEP F Markit Composite PMI exp: 51.5 prev: 51.3
08:50 FR SEP F Markit Services PMI exp: 51.6 prev: 51.6
09:00 EU SEP F Markit Composite PMI exp: 50.4 prev: 50.4
09:00 EU SEP F Markit Services PMI exp: 52 prev: 52
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: 0.2%
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: -0.6%
13:30 US W38 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 216 prev: 213
14:45 US SEP F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 51
14:45 US SEP F Markit Services PMI exp: 50.9 prev: 50.9
15:00 US AUG F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: 0.5%
15:00 US AUG F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: 0.2%
15:00 US AUG Factory Orders exp: -0.2% prev: 1.4%
15:00 US SEP ISM – Non Manufacturing exp: 55.4 prev: 56.4 read more