Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 63.70 Our preference: short positions below 63.70 with targets at 63.15 & 62.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.70 look for further upside with 64.05 & 64.40 as targets. Comment: the RSI has just struck against its neutrality area at 50% and is reversing down. |
Today’s Economic Events
09:00 GE NOV IFO – Business Climate exp: NA prev: 94.6
09:00 GE NOV IFO – Current Assessment exp: NA prev: 97.8
09:00 GE NOV IFO – Expectations exp: NA prev: 91.5
US indices closed slightly higher on Friday lifted by shares in the Automobiles & Components (+2.05%), Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.09%) and Transportation (+1.05%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 52.2, above the 51.4 consensus for the November preliminary reading, up from 51.3 in the prior reading. Also, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index November final reading came in at 96.8, higher than the prior reading of 95.7. On Monday, economists expect the Chicago Fed National Activity Index reading for October.
European markets are expected to start on a positive note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 63.20 Our preference: long positions above 63.20 with targets at 64.00 & 64.50 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.20 look for further downside with 62.70 & 62.35 as targets. Comment: technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. |
Today’s Economic Events
08:15 FR NOV P Markit Composite PMI exp: 52.7 prev: 52.6
08:15 FR NOV P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50.9 prev: 50.7
08:15 FR NOV P Markit Services PMI exp: 53 prev: 52.9
09:00 EU NOV P Markit Composite PMI exp: 50.9 prev: 50.6
09:00 EU NOV P Markit Manufacturing exp: 46.3 prev: 45.9
09:00 EU NOV P Markit Services PMI exp: 52.4 prev: 52.2
14:45 US NOV P Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 50.9
14:45 US NOV P Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 51.4 prev: 51.3
14:45 US NOV P Markit Services PMI exp: 51.3 prev: 50.6
15:00 US NOV F U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 95.7 prev: 95.7
U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday pressured by shares in the Real Estate (-1.39%), Household & Personal Products (-1.35%) and Consumer Durables & Apparel (-0.77%) sectors.
U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned that China is not stepping up in trade negotiations, while the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s chief trade negotiator Liu He has invited his U.S. counterparts for more talks.
The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims amounted to 227,000 for the week ended November 16 (218,000 expected, 227,000 in the prior week). Existing home sales rose to an annualized rate of 5.46 million units in October (5.49 million units expected, 5.36 million units in September).
Later today, the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is expected to post 51.4 (preliminary reading) for November (51.3 in October). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to be 95.7 in November.
European markets are expected to open on a positive note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 61.85 Our preference: long positions above 61.85 with targets at 62.80 & 63.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 61.85 look for further downside with 61.25 & 60.80 as targets. Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:45 FR NOV Business Confidence Indicator exp: 100 prev: 99.4
07:45 FR NOV Production Outlook Indicator exp: NA prev: -0.9
09:30 UK OCT Public Finances (PSNCR) (B GBP) exp: NA prev: 2.7
09:30 UK OCT Public Sector Net Borrowing (B GBP) exp: 8.5 prev: 8.7
13:30 US NOV Philadelphia Fed. exp: 6.5 prev: 5.6
13:30 US W45 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 218 prev: 225
15:00 EC NOV A Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -7.4 prev: -7.6
15:00 US OCT Existing Home Sales (M) exp: 5.5 prev: 5.4
15:00 US OCT Leading Indicators exp: -0.1% prev: -0.1%
US indices closed lower on Wednesday, pulling back from record highs after Reuters reported a phase one trade deal between China and the U.S. might not be completed by the end of 2019. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (-2.51%), Transportation (-1.67%) and Materials (-1.18%) sectors saw the most pressure.
On the economic data front, Mortgage Applications fell -2.2% for the week ending November 15th, down from a rise of 9.6% the prior week. The Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes ended on the note that the Fed would hold rates here and that rates were cut due to the trade war, moreover they see moderate growth in the economy along with strong labor.
Later today, economists expect Initial Jobless Claims to be lower for the week ending November 16th, compared to the prior week and Continuing Claims for November 9th is anticipated to be in-line with the week before. Economists also expect Leading Index data for October and an increase in existing Home Sales for October.
European markets are expected to start on a negative note.
EMEA Base Oil Price Report
BY RAY MASSON
Base oil prices around the European, Middle Eastern and African markets are muted due to a mounting oversupply situation that is growing by the day. Supplies of all groups are ample to cover immediate and forward requirements into the first quarter of next year.
Group I prices are approaching a critical point where raw material costs overtake selling prices, causing some sellers to comment that they would rather not produce base oils. Some have declared that they will stop production in December rather than dump material at a loss into a market which is saturated with availabilities. Fuels production is much more appealing, so feedstock streams may be diverted away from Group I output, which could lead to shortages of this category during 2020.