Month: November 2019

US indices closed higher on Friday helped by Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (+1.12%), Automobiles & Components (+0.81%), and Media (+0.73%) sectors.

On the economic data front, Wholesale Inventories month over month change released at -0.4%, lower than the -0.3% consensus for the September final reading, down from -0.3% in the preliminary reading, marking the lowest reading since October of 2017. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 95.7, better than the 95.5 estimate for the November preliminary reading, up from 95.5 in the prior reading. On Monday, their is no major economic data being released.


European markets are expected to open on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 62.40 Our preference: short positions below 62.40 with targets at 61.30 & 60.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 62.40 look for further upside with 62.65 & 62.90 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further downside

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE SEP Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 16.9
07:00 GE SEP Exports (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: -1.5%
07:00 GE SEP Imports (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 0.6%
07:00 GE SEP Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 19.2 prev: 16.4
07:45 FR 3Q P Wages (QoQ) exp: NA prev: 0.5%
07:45 FR SEP Trade Balance (M) exp: NA prev: -5019
15:00 US NOV P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 95.4 prev: 95.5
15:00 US SEP F Wholesale Inventories exp: -0.3% prev: -0.3%

U.S. indices closed slightly higher on Thursday helped by shares in the Energy (+1.58%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+0.9%) and Banks (+0.79%) sectors. The 10-year Treasury yield had its biggest gain since the day after President Donald Trump was elected on renewed trade optimism. The S&P 500 (3,085.18) stays above its 20d moving average (3,024.42 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,987.25 – positive slope).

On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims reported 211K, lower than the 215K consensus for the week ending November 2nd, down 8K from a revised 219K the prior week. Continuing Claims came in at 1689K, above the 1682K estimate for the week ending October 26th, down 3K from a revised 1692K last week. On Friday, economists expect Wholesale Inventories month over month change for the September final reading to be in-line with the preliminary reading at -0.3%. Also on Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected at 95.5 for the November preliminary reading, in-line with the prior reading.


European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 62.30 Our preference: long positions above 62.30 with targets at 63.05 & 63.45 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 62.30 look for further downside with 61.85 & 61.30 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events
08:50 FR OCT F Markit Composite PMI exp: 52.6 prev: 52.6
08:50 FR OCT F Markit Services PMI exp: 52.9 prev: 52.9
09:00 EU OCT F Markit Composite PMI exp: 50.2 prev: 50.2
09:00 EU OCT F Markit Services PMI exp: 51.8 prev: 51.8
10:00 EC SEP Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US 3Q P Nonfarm Productivity exp: 0.9% prev: 2.3%
13:30 US 3Q P Unit Labor Costs exp: 2.1% prev: 2.6%
15:30 US W43 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 5702

US indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Food & Staples Retailing (+1.47%), Consumer Services (+0.85%) and Banks (+0.69%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Real Estate (-1.76%), Commercial & Professional Services (-1.17%) and Utilities (-1.03%) sectors were under pressure. The S&P 500 (3,074.62) stays above its 20d moving average (3,009.20 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,979.15 – positive slope).

On the economic data front, the Trade Balance fell to -52.5 billion dollars, just shy of the -52.4 billion dollars estimate for September, down from a revised -55.0 billion dollars in August. The Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 54.7, higher than the 53.5 consensus for October, up from 52.6 in September. On Wednesday, economists expect MBA Mortgage Applications to be released.


European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

BY RAY MASSON

The seasonal downturn in base oil trading has started, with many buyers backing off on large orders, inclined to take smaller parcels so as to minimize inventory in the run-up to the year’s end.

Availabilities of all types of base oil appear ample, allowing buyers to procure on an ad hoc basis rather than having to commit to large quantities in one hit. API Group I prices are coming under downward pricing pressure due to lackluster buying front, and some producers are trying to clear stocks out of inventory earlier than normal. Raw material costs are relatively high, so margins are already squeezed. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 61.60 Our preference: long positions above 61.60 with targets at 62.75 & 63.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 61.60 look for further downside with 61.30 & 60.80 as targets. Comment: the RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.

Today’s Economic Events

07:45 FR SEP Central Govt. Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: -123.1
10:00 EC SEP Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.5%
13:30 US SEP Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -53 prev: -54.9
14:45 US OCT F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 51.2
14:45 US OCT F Markit Services PMI exp: NA prev: 51
15:00 US OCT ISM – Non Manufacturing exp: 53.6 prev: 52.6