The Dow Jones index finally joined the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices in making a record high on Monday helped by shares in the Energy (+3.15%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.29%) and Transportation (+2.19%) sectors. The S&P 500 (3,078.27) stays above its 20d moving average (3,000.12 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,975.23 – positive slope).
On the economic data front, Durable Goods Orders released at -1.2%, lower than the -1.1% estimate for the September final reading, down from -1.1% in the prior reading. Factory Orders came in at -0.6%, just missing the -0.5% consensus for September, down from -0.1% the month before. On Tuesday, economists expect the Trade Balance to decrease to -52.4 billion dollars for September, down from -54.9 billion dollars in August and the Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing Index is expected higher at 53.5 for October, compared to 52.6 in September.
European markets are expected to open on a positive note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap 04.11.19
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 61.10 Our preference: long positions above 61.10 with targets at 62.10 & 62.50 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 61.10 look for further downside with 60.80 & 60.40 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside. |
Economic Calendar 04.11.19
Today’s Economic Events
08:50 FR OCT F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 50.5 prev: 50.5
09:00 EU OCT F Markit Manufacturing exp: 45.7 prev: 45.7
15:00 US SEP F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: -0.3%
15:00 US SEP F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: -1.1%
15:00 US SEP Factory Orders exp: -0.4% prev: -0.1%
General Market Comment 04.11.19
US indices ended sharply higher Friday helped by stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Shares in the Transportation (+2.98%), Automobiles & Components (+2.87%) and Energy (+2.51%) sectors traded higher. The S&P 500 (3,066.91) stays above its 20d moving average (2,993.15 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,970.60 – positive slope).
On the economic data front, the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls released at 128K, significantly exceeding the 85K consensus for October, down from a revised 180K the prior month. The Unemployment Rate came in as expected at 3.6% for October, up from 3.5% in September. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing rose to 48.3, below the 48.9 consensus for October, up from 47.8 in September. Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index released at 51.3, just shy of the 51.5 estimate for the October final reading, slightly down from 51.5 in the prior reading. US Auto Sales fell to 16.55 million, missing 17.0 million estimate for October, down from 17.19 million the month before. On Monday, economists expect Durable Goods Orders to be in-line with the prior reading at -1.1% for the September final reading. Also, Factory Orders are anticipated to the lower at -0.5% for September, down from -0.1% the month before.
European markets are expected to start on a positive note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap 01.11.19
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 59.95 Our preference: short positions below 59.95 with targets at 59.40 & 59.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.95 look for further upside with 60.35 & 60.80 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution. |
Economic Calendar 01.11.19
Today’s Economic Events
US OCT Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.2%
US OCT Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.6
US OCT Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 17 prev: 17.2
12:30 US OCT Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: -56 prev: -2
12:30 US OCT Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 85 prev: 136
12:30 US OCT Unemployment Rate exp: 3.6% prev: 3.5%
13:45 US OCT F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: 51.4 prev: 51.5
14:00 US OCT ISM – Manufacturing exp: 49 prev: 47.8
14:00 US OCT ISM – Price Paid exp: NA prev: 49.7
14:00 US SEP Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
General Market Comment 01.11.19
US indices closed lower on Thursday pressured by shares in the Transportation (-1.36%), Materials (-1.1%) and Capital Goods (-1.09%) sectors. The S&P 500 (3,037.56) stays above its 20d moving average (2,987.40 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,967.72 – positive slope).
The House of Representatives approved a resolution to formalize the procedures of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump which also put pressure on U.S. markets.
On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 218K, above the 215K estimate for the week ending October 26th, up from a revised 213K last week. Continuing Claims increased to 1,690K, higher than the 1,679K estimate for the week ending October 19th, up from a revised 1,683K the prior week. Personal Income released at 0.3%, in-line with estimates for September and down from a revised 0.5% in August. Personal Spending came in at 0.2%, just shy of the 0.3% consensus for September, in-line with a revised 0.2% for the prior month. The Market News International Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 43.2, missing the 48.0 estimate for October, down from 47.1 in September. On Friday, economists expect the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls to be 85K for October, which is the lowest for the year. The Unemployment Rate is expected at 3.6% for October, up from 3.5% in September. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing is anticipated to be higher for the month of October and the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index October final reading is expected to be in-line with the prior reading at 51.5. Finally, US Auto Sales are expected to release at 17.0 million for October, down from 17.19 million the month before.
European markets are expected to start on a positive note.