Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 65.85 Our preference: long positions above 65.85 with targets at 66.40 & 66.75 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 65.85 look for further downside with 65.55 & 65.25 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:45 FR DEC Business Confidence Indicator exp: 99.7 prev: 99.7
07:45 FR DEC Production Outlook Indicator exp: NA prev: -2.7
09:30 UK NOV Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.3%
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US DEC Philadelphia Fed. exp: 8.8 prev: 10.4
13:30 US W49 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 227 prev: 252
15:00 US NOV Existing Home Sales (M) exp: 5.4 prev: 5.5
15:00 US NOV Leading Indicators exp: 0.1% prev: -0.1%
US indices closed down on Wednesday, pressured by the Food & Staples Retailing (-0.94%), Transportation (-0.85%) and Diversified Financials (-0.67%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Applications fell 5.0% for the week ending December 13th, down from a rise of 3.8% the prior week.
On Thursday, economists expect Initial Jobless Claims to fall to 225K for the week ending December 14th, down from 252K the week before. Continuing Claims is anticipated to rise to 1,676K for the week ending December 7th, up from 1,667K the prior week. The Leading Index is expected to increase 0.1% for November, up from a decline of 0.1% in October. Finally, Existing Home Sales are expected to slightly decrease to 5.44 million homes for November, down from 5.46 million homes the month before.
European markets are expected to open on a flat note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 65.50 Our preference: long positions above 65.50 with targets at 66.20 & 66.50 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 65.50 look for further downside with 65.10 & 64.90 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE NOV Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.2%
09:00 GE DEC IFO – Business Climate exp: NA prev: 95
09:00 GE DEC IFO – Current Assessment exp: NA prev: 97.9
09:00 GE DEC IFO – Expectations exp: NA prev: 92.1
09:30 UK NOV CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.2%
09:30 UK NOV PPI – Input (MoM) exp: NA prev: -1.3%
09:30 UK NOV PPI – Output (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.1%
10:00 EC NOV F Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.3%
US indices closed up on Tuesday, lifted by the Retailing (+0.85%), Banks (+0.69%) and Automobiles & Components (+0.55%) sectors. On the economic data front, Housing Starts increased to 1,365K for November, above the 1,345K consensus, up from a revised 1,323K the month before. Building Permits unexpectedly climbed to 1,482K for November, exceeding the 1,410K estimate, up from 1,461K in October, marking a high not seen since 2007. Industrial Production monthly change rose 1.1% for November, beating the 0.8% estimate, compared to a revised fall of 0.9% the prior month. Capacity Utilization increased to 77.3% for November, just shy of the 77.4% consensus, up from a revised 76.6% in October.
On Wednesday, economists expect the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Mortgage Applications data for the week ending December 13th.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
EMEA Base Oil Price Report
As happens this time of year, many base oil buyers have largely ceased activity for the remainder of the year, yet a few pockets of action continue.
One refiner along the Mediterraneaniterranean is having production problems, so there are inquiries for material to cover any shortfall for that company’s in-house and contractual commitments.
Prices for API Group I grades have stabilized overall, perhaps because they have little room to decline further. In addition, a more balanced supply-demand picture is emerging as a number of suppliers are showing substantial buying interest for January, lending hope that markets may undergo an upturn during the first quarter. The squeeze on margins has some Group I refiners seriously considering whether to continue producing these grades.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 65.10 Our preference: long positions above 65.10 with targets at 65.65 & 65.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 65.10 look for further downside with 64.85 & 64.50 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. |
Today’s Economic Events
09:30 UK OCT Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: NA prev: 3.8%
10:00 EC OCT Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 18654
13:30 US NOV Bulding Permits (k) exp: 1406 prev: 1461
13:30 US NOV Housing Starts (k) exp: 1338 prev: 1314
14:15 US NOV Industrial Capacity Utilization exp: 77.3% prev: 76.74%
14:15 US NOV Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.8% prev: -0.8%
US indices closed up on Monday, lifted by the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.5%), Energy (+1.42%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.34%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 3.5 for December, below the 4.0 consensus, up from 2.9 in November. The Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index slightly declined to 52.5 for the December preliminary reading, below the expected 52.6 and down from 52.6 in the November final reading.
On Tuesday, economists expect Housing Starts to increase to 1,344K for November, up from 1,314K the month before. Building Permits are anticipated to fall to 1,418K for November, down from 1,461K in October. Industrial Production monthly change for November is expected to rise 0.8% for November, compared to a fall of 0.8% the prior month. Finally, Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 77.4% for November, up from 76.7% in October.
European markets are expected to start on a positive note.