Month: December 2019

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK OCT Industrial Production (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.3%
09:30 UK OCT Manufacturing Production (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.4%
09:30 UK OCT Trade Balance in Goods (M GBP) exp: NA prev: -12541
09:30 UK OCT Trade Balance Non EU (M GBP) exp: NA prev: -4032
10:00 GE DEC Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: NA prev: -24.7
10:00 GE DEC Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: NA prev: -2.1
13:30 US 3Q F Nonfarm Productivity exp: -0.2% prev: -0.3%
13:30 US 3Q F Unit Labor Costs exp: 3.3% prev: 3.6% read more

US indices closed down on Monday, pressured by the Health Care Equipment & Services (-1.29%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.06%) and Utilities (-0.49%) sectors. On the economic data front, no major economic news was released. On Tuesday, economists expect the National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index to come out at 103.0 for November, up from 102.4 in October.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was flat to bullish against most of its major pairs on Monday, with the exception of the CAD and CHF. On the economic data front, no major economic news was released. On Tuesday, economists expect the National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index to come out at 103.0 for November, up from 102.4 in October.

The Euro was flat to bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CAD and CHF. In Europe, Germany’s Trade Balance for October was reported at 21.5 billion euros (surplus of 19.3 billion euros was expected), Exports were released at 1.2% on month, they were expected at -0.7%. The Sentix Eurozone Investor Confidence Index for December was released at 0.7 (it was expected at -5.3).

The Australian dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.50 Our preference: long positions above 63.50 with targets at 64.85 & 65.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.50 look for further downside with 62.80 & 62.15 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE OCT Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 25.5
07:00 GE OCT Exports (MoM) exp: NA prev: 1.5%
07:00 GE OCT Imports (MoM) exp: NA prev: 1.2%
07:00 GE OCT Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 21.2

US indices closed up 0.91% lifted by shares in the Energy (+2%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.62%) and Banks (+1.58%) sectors. On the economic data front, Nonfarm Payrolls month over month change rose to 266K for November, exceeding the 180K consensus, up from a revised 156K in October. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5% for November, beating the 3.6% estimate, below 3.6% the month before, marking the lowest jobs number since 1969. Wholesale Inventories month over month change increased 0.1% for the October final reading, below the 0.2% consensus, down 0.1% from the preliminary reading. The University of Michigan Sentiment Index rose to 99.2 for the December preliminary reading, beating the 97.0 estimate, up from 96.8 in the November final reading.

On Monday, no major economic news is expected.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.00 Our preference: long positions above 63.00 with targets at 63.60 & 63.90 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.00 look for further downside with 62.50 & 62.05 as targets. Comment: the RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.

Today’s Economic Events

US NOV Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.2%
US NOV Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.6
07:00 GE OCT Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.6%
07:45 FR OCT Trade Balance (M) exp: -4907 prev: -5551
13:30 US NOV Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: 32 prev: -36
13:30 US NOV Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 186 prev: 128
13:30 US NOV Unemployment Rate exp: 3.6% prev: 3.6%
15:00 US DEC P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 97.2 prev: 96.8
15:00 US OCT F Wholesale Inventories exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
20:00 US OCT Consumer Credit (B USD) exp: 15.7 prev: 9.5 read more

US indices closed up on Thursday lifted by the Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.56%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.85%) and Materials (+0.66%) sectors. On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 203K, below the 215K estimate for the week ending November 30th, down 10K from 213K the week before. Continuing Claims rose to 1693K, higher than the 1660K consensus for the week ending November 23rd, up from a revised 1642K the prior week. The Trade deficit narrowed to 47.2 billion dollars, below the 48.6 billion dollar deficit estimate for October. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index increased to 61.7 for the week ending December 1st, up from 60.5 the week before. Factory Orders rose 0.3%, in-line with the estimate for October, up from a revised decline of -0.8% the month before. Durable Goods Orders rose 0.5%, just shy of the 0.6% consensus for the October final reading, slightly below 0.6% in the preliminary reading.

On Friday, economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise 184K month over month for November, up from 128K in October. The Unemployment Rate for November is anticipated to be in-line with the prior month at 3.6%. Wholesale Inventories month over month change is expected at 0.2% for the October final reading, in-line with the preliminary reading. Finally, the University of Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to rise to 97.0 for the December preliminary reading, up from 96.8 in the November final reading.

European markets are expected to open on a positive note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

Dynamics for base oils in Europe, the Middle East and Africa are varying these days based on product group and region. The traditional seasonal slowdown in trade is in full swing, but several developments are roiling the markets.

API Group I prices are stable because supply and demand are in balance, which is unusual for this time of year. Supply is down because many producers have cut back on production due to poor margins – moves that are casting doubts about long-term provision of these grades. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 60.70 Our preference: long positions above 60.70 with targets at 61.55 & 62.10 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 60.70 look for further downside with 60.35 & 59.95 as targets. Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound.