US indices closed lower on Friday but posted the largest monthly gain since June. Stocks in the Energy (-1.01%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-0.94%) and Retailing (-0.83%) sectors were under the most pressure. On the economic data front, no major news was released. On Monday, economists expect the Markit US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index to release at 52.2 for the November final reading, in-line with the preliminary reading. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is anticipated at 49.2 for November, up from 48.3 the month before. Finally, Construction Spending month over month change is expected to rise 0.4% for October, compared to a rise of 0.5% in September.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap 28.11.19
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 63.10 Our preference: short positions below 63.10 with targets at 62.45 & 62.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.10 look for further upside with 63.40 & 63.60 as targets. Comment: as long as 63.10 is resistance, expect a return to 62.45. |
Economic Calendar 28.11.19
Today’s Economic Events
10:00 EC NOV Business Climate Indicator exp: -0.16 prev: -0.19
10:00 EC NOV Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence exp: 101.1 prev: 100.8
10:00 EC NOV Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence exp: -9.2 prev: -9.5
10:00 EC NOV F Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: NA prev: -7.2
13:00 GE NOV P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.6% prev: 0.1%
13:00 GE NOV P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.7% prev: 0.1%
General Market Comment 28.11.19
US indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive day lifted by shares in the Consumer Services (+1.06%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1%) and Retailing (+0.83%) sectors. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 1.5% for the week ending November 22nd, up from a decline of -2.2% the week before. Gross Domestic Product increased 2.1%, better than the 1.9% expectation for the Annualized third quarter second reading, up from 1.9% in the advanced reading. Durable Goods orders rose 0.6%, better than the -0.9% consensus for the October preliminary reading, up from a revised -1.4% for the September final reading. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 213K, better than the 221K estimate for the week ending November 23rd, down 15K from a revised 228K the week before. Continuing Claims declined to 1,640K, better than the 1,691K estimate for the week ending November 16th, compared to a revised 1,697K in the prior week. Personal Income released unchanged, missing the 0.3% estimate for October, compared to a rise of 0.3% last month. Personal Spending came in at 0.3%, as expected for October, slightly up from 0.2% in September. The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer came in at 46.3, below the 47.0 consensus for November, up from 43.2 in October. Finally the Fed released their last Beige Book of the year, which stated that economic activity expanded modestly, with improvements in auto sales, home sales and residential construction. Employment rose slightly overall, even with a tight labor market and prices rose at a moderate rate, even with the continuing trade war. In conclusion the outlook remains positive and growth is expected to continue into next year. On Thursday, no major economic news is expected as U.S. markets are closed to observe the Thanksgiving holiday.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
EMEA Weekly Base Oil Price Report 27.11.19
EMEA Base Oil Price Report
Base oil demand is sluggish throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa as lackluster economic activity has turned a normally slow season deathly quiet. Many lubricant blenders have made their last base stock purchases of the year, and inventories of all grades are rising.
API Group I prices are coming under renewed pressure, and some suppliers are implementing markdowns in efforts to reduce inventories before the end of the year. The problem is that sellers have little room to move, since Group I prices are barely above raw material costs, and any more discounting could take margins into negative territory.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap 27.11.19
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 63.65 Our preference: long positions above 63.65 with targets at 64.60 & 65.10 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.65 look for further downside with 63.30 & 63.00 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum |
Economic Calendar 27.11.19
Today’s Economic Events
GE OCT Retail Sales (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0%
07:45 FR NOV Consumer Confidence exp: NA prev: 104
13:30 US 3Q S GDP (QoQ) exp: 1.9% prev: 1.9%
13:30 US 3Q S GDP Price (QoQ) exp: NA prev: 1.7%
13:30 US 3Q S Personal Consumption exp: NA prev: 2.9%
13:30 US OCT P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: -0.4%
13:30 US OCT P Durable Goods Orders exp: -0.7% prev: -1.2%
14:45 US NOV Chicago Purchasing Manager Index exp: NA prev: 43.2
15:00 US OCT Personal Income exp: 0.3% prev: 0.3%
15:00 US OCT Personal Spending exp: 0.3% prev: 0.2%
General Market Comment 27.11.19
US indices closed higher on Tuesday lifted by shares in the Commercial & Professional Services (+1.51%), Real Estate (+1.44%) and Household & Personal Products (+1.28%) sectors. On the economic data front, Wholesale Inventories month over month change rose by 0.2% as expected for the October preliminary reading, up from a revised decline of -0.7% in the prior reading. New Home Sales came in at 733K, above the 705K estimate for October, down from a revised 738K in September. Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell to 125.5, below the 127.0 consensus for November, down from a revised 126.1 reading in October.
On Wednesday, economists expect MBA Mortgage Applications for the week ending November 22nd, Gross Domestic Product Annualized third quarter second reading, and the October preliminary reading for Durable Goods orders. Also, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 23rd and Continuing Claims for the week ending November 16th, are both anticipated lower. Additionally expected is Personal Income and Personal Spending data for October, the Market News International Chicago Business Barometer for November, and finally the Fed is awaited to release their last Beige Book for the year.
European markets are expected to open on a flat note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap 26.11.19
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 63.30 Our preference: long positions above 63.30 with targets at 64.00 & 64.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 63.30 look for further downside with 63.00 & 62.55 as targets. Comment: the RSI calls for a rebound. |
Economic Calendar 26.11.19
Today’s Economic Events
13:30 US OCT P Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: -0.4%
15:00 US NOV Consumer Confidence exp: 126.4 prev: 125.9
15:00 US OCT New Home Sales (k) exp: 702 prev: 701