Category: News

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

BY RAY MASSON

Base oil prices appeared to stabilize the past week across Europe, the Middle East and Africa as only API Group III stocks still show signs of weakening.

Group I prices did dip the prior week but appear to have settled for now. Supply and demand seem to be more balanced after some producers cut back on base oils by moving feedstocks to output of distillates and other fuels. Maintenance turnarounds now underway have snugged the supply side, although there are no reports of shortages of Group I grades. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.25 Our preference: short positions below 59.25 with targets at 58.60 & 58.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.25 look for further upside with 59.65 & 60.10 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bearish.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK SEP CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.4%
09:30 UK SEP PPI – Input (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -0.1%
09:30 UK SEP PPI – Output (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.1%
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 24790
10:00 EC SEP Euro-Zone: CPI (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%
13:30 US SEP Retail Sales exp: 0.3% prev: 0.4%
13:30 US SEP Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.3% prev: 0%
15:00 US AUG Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0.4%
15:00 US OCT NAHB Housing Market exp: 68 prev: 68 read more

US indices closed higher on Tuesday as earnings season kicked off to a good start. Shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (+2.75%) sector rallied the most with shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.46%) and Automobiles & Components (+2.3%) sectors followed close behind. There was no economic news to report. The S&P 500 (2,995.68) remains above its 20d moving average (2,958.85 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,939.38 – positive slope). Looking at crude oil, WTI dropped 1.27% following Monday’s decline amid oil demand concerns after the IMF cut its 2019 global growth forecast for the fifth time.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.40 Our preference: short positions below 59.40 with targets at 58.50 & 58.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.40 look for further upside with 60.10 & 60.70 as targets. Comment: a break below 58.50 would trigger a drop towards 58.20.

Today’s Economic Events

US SEP Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: 89 prev: -200
07:45 FR SEP F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: -0.3%
07:45 FR SEP F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.4% prev: -0.4%
09:30 UK AUG Unemployment Rate (ILO) exp: 3.8% prev: 3.8%
10:00 GE OCT Zew Survey (Current Situation) exp: -23.1 prev: -19.9
10:00 GE OCT Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) exp: -27.2 prev: -22.5
13:30 US OCT Empire Manufacturing exp: 0.7 prev: 2

US indices closed slightly negative on Monday pressured by shares in the Household & Personal Products (-1%), Materials (-0.74%) and Utilities (-0.67%) sectors after uncertainties around the new U.S.-China trade pact emerged. The S&P 500 (2,966.15) remains above its 20d moving average (2,959.35 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,936.36 – flat slope).

On the economic data front, the Empire Manufacturing Index rose to 4.0 beating the 1.0 estimate for October compared to 2.0 in the prior month. On Tuesday, economists expect the Monthly Budget Statement for September to be released between October 15th and October 18th. It is anticipated at $83.0B compared to $119.1B in August.

WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.32% on Monday as doubts over the U.S.-China “Phase One” deal developed.

European markets are expected to open on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.80 Our preference: long positions above 59.80 with targets at 60.70 & 61.15 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 59.80 look for further downside with 59.40 & 59.00 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE SEP Wholesale Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.8%
10:00 EC AUG Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.4%

US indices rallied on Friday after President Trump said the U.S. reached the first phase of a trade deal that delays tariff hikes that were set to start next week. Shares in the Automobiles & Components (+2.82%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.23%) and Transportation (+2.19%) sectors helped push U.S. indices to near record highs. The S&P 500 (2,970.27) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,960.94 – negative slope) and above 50d moving average (2,935.57 – flat slope).

On the economic data front, the US Import Price Index rose 0.2% MoM which was more than the unchanged estimate for September compared to a decline of 0.5% in August. The University of Michigan Sentiment index came in at 96.0 which was above the 92.0 estimate for the October preliminary reading compared to 93.2 in the September final reading. On Monday, no major economic news is expected.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more