Real time trading in Polymers, Base Oils, TiO2 and Nanomaterials
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 59.35 Our preference: long positions above 59.35 with targets at 60.70 & 61.30 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 59.35 look for further downside with 59.00 & 58.70 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further upside. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE SEP F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0%
07:00 GE SEP F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: -0.1%
15:00 US OCT P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 92 prev: 93.2
US indices closed higher on trade optimism Thursday after a tweet from Trump said “Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House” The best performing stocks were in the , Banks (+1.46%), Automobiles & Components (+1.33%) and Energy (+1.28%) sectors. The S&P 500 (2,938.13) trades below its 20d moving average (2,962.80 – negative slope) but breaks above 50d moving average (2,935.35 – negative slope).
On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 210K which was lower than the 220K estimate for the week ended October 5th from a revised 220K the week before. Continuing Claims rose to 1684K which was higher than the 1651K estimate for the week ended September 28th from a revised 1655K the prior week. US CPI MoM reported unchanged missing the 0.1% estimate for September compared to 0.1% in August. On Friday, economists expect the US Import Price Index to be unchanged for September compared to a decline of 0.5% in August. The University of Michigan Sentiment is expected to come in at 92 for the October preliminary reading which is down 1.2 points from 93.2 in the September final reading.
European markets are expected to open on a positive note.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 58.55 Our preference: short positions below 58.55 with targets at 57.80 & 57.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 58.55 look for further upside with 58.90 & 59.30 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 58.55 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 57.80 remains high. |
Today’s Economic Events
07:00 GE AUG Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 22.1
07:00 GE AUG Exports (MoM) exp: -1% prev: 0.8%
07:00 GE AUG Imports (MoM) exp: 0.6% prev: -1.6%
07:00 GE AUG Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 18.6 prev: 21.6
09:30 UK AUG Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.1%
09:30 UK AUG Manufacturing Production (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
09:30 UK AUG Trade Balance in Goods (M GBP) exp: -9977 prev: -9144
09:30 UK AUG Trade Balance Non EU (M GBP) exp: -2688 prev: -1932
13:30 US SEP Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US SEP CPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US W39 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 220 prev: 219
US indices closed in the green on Wednesday for the first time this week lifted by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.7%), Software & Services (+1.51%) and Diversified Financials (+1.31%) sectors. On the economic data front, US Wholesale Inventories decreased 0.2% missing the 0.4% estimate for the August Final reading, down from 0.4% in the August preliminary reading. US MBA Mortgage Applications rose 5.2% last week compared to a gain of 8.1% in the prior week. The S&P 500 (2,919.4) trades below its 20d moving average (2,966.37 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,936.19 – negative slope).
On Thursday, economists expect Initial Jobless Claims to increase to 220K for the week ended October 5th from 219K the week before. Continuing Claims for the week ended September 28th is expected to be in line with the prior week at 1651K. Finally, US CPI MoM change for September is expected to be in line with the prior month at 0.1%.
Crude inventories grew more than expected last week, rising by 2.9 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 1.4 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
EMEA Base Oil Price Report
BY RAY MASSON
Base oil prices appear weaker across Europe, the Middle East and Africa except for the API Group II sector, where suppliers attempted to impose markups of around $10 per metric ton from Oct. 1.
That may seem an interesting move at a season when demand starts to wane, and some buyers are resisting, but sellers maintain that there is more than sufficient demand to justify such a move. Ultimately the market will decide whether these markups stick.
Group I prices have dipped in response to lower demand and steady availabilities of all grades, putting pressure on producers to discount on exports and sales within the region.
BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)
| Pivot: 58.40 Our preference: short positions below 58.40 with targets at 57.70 & 57.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 58.40 look for further upside with 58.90 & 59.20 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum. |
Today’s Economic Events
15:00 US AUG F Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.4%
15:30 US W39 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 3104
19:00 US SEP 18 Minutes FOMC Meeting exp: prev
U.S. indices were under pressure on Tuesday as trader optimism around the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks declined. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.89%), Automobiles & Components (-2.54%) and Banks (-2.36%) sectors got hurt the most. The U.S. expanded its trade blacklist to include some of China’s top artificial intelligence firms on Monday. China’s foreign ministry said to “stay tuned” for retaliation following the blacklist expansion. Crude Oil fell to a two month low on the news. The S&P 500 (2,893.06) trades below its 20d moving average (2,893.06 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,938.07 – negative slope).
On the economic data front, U.S. PPI rose 1.4% YoY in September (vs. +1.8% expected and in August), the lowest growth since November 2016, and the core PPI rose 2.0% (vs. +2.3% expected and in August), the weakest since July 2017. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 101.8 in September (vs. 102.0 estimated) from 103.1 in August. On Wednesday, investors will focus on the release of the latest U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting minutes.
European markets are expected to open on a flat note.