Category: News

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE AUG Import Prices (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: -0.2%
07:45 FR AUG Households Consumption (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: 0.4%
07:45 FR AUG Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.4%
07:45 FR SEP P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: 0.5%
07:45 FR SEP P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: -0.3% prev: 0.5%
10:00 EC SEP Business Climate Indicator exp: 0.1 prev: 0.11
10:00 EC SEP Euro-Zone: Economic Confidence exp: 103 prev: 103.1
10:00 EC SEP Euro-zone: Industrial Confidence exp: -6.1 prev: -5.9
10:00 EC SEP F Euro-Zone: Consumer Confidence exp: -6.5 prev: -6.5
13:30 US AUG P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.2% prev: -0.4%
13:30 US AUG P Durable Goods Orders exp: -1.1% prev: 2%
13:30 US AUG Personal Income exp: 0.4% prev: 0.1%
13:30 US AUG Personal Spending exp: 0.2% prev: 0.6%
15:00 US SEP F U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 92.5 prev: 92 read more

U.S. indices closed in the red on Thursday pressured by shares in the Energy (-1.33%), Health Care Equipment & Services (-1.15%) and Media (-1.02%) sectors. Traders are still trying to manage risks regarding the global trade war and a whistleblower complaint against President Trump.


On the economic data front, final readings of U.S. 2Q annualized GDP was confirmed at +2.0% QoQ as expected and previously estimated. Jobless claims rose to 213K for the week ending September 21 (vs. 212K expected) from 210K in the prior week. Wholesale Inventories rose 0.4% MoM in August (vs. +0.1% expected).


On Friday, economists anticipate durable goods orders to fall 1.1% in August. Personal income is expected to rise 0.4% MoM in August and personal spending to grow 0.3%. Finally, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to rise to 92.1 in September from 92.0 in August.


The S&P 500 (2977.62) trades below its 20d moving average (2,977.78 – positive slope) but above its 50d moving average (2,949.49 – flat slope).


European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.00 Our preference: short positions below 63.00 with targets at 61.80 & 61.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.00 look for further upside with 63.40 & 63.80 as targets. Comment: a break below 61.80 would trigger a drop towards 61.25.

Today’s Economic Events

13:30 US 2Q T GDP (QoQ) exp: 2% prev: 2%
13:30 US 2Q T GDP Price (QoQ) exp: 2.4% prev: 2.4%
13:30 US 2Q T Personal Consumption exp: 4.7% prev: 4.7%
13:30 US AUG P Wholesale Inventories exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
13:30 US W37 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 213 prev: 208

U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said a U.S.-China trade deal could arrive sooner than expected. Stocks that led the S&P 500 were in the Consumer Durables & Apparel (+2.21%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.65%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1.53%) sectors.


On the economic data front, U.S. new homes sales rose 7.1% MoM to an annualized rate of 713K units in August (vs. 659K units expected), above 700K units for the third time since 2007. On Thursday, we expect weekly jobless claims to edge up to 212K for the week ending September 21 from 208K in the prior week. The final readings of 2Q annualized GDP growth is expected to be unchanged at 2.0% QoQ. Finally, wholesale inventories are expected to rise 0.1% MoM in August.


The S&P 500 (2984.87) trades above both its 20d moving average (2,973.30 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,949.63 – flat slope).


European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.25 Our preference: short positions below 63.25 with targets at 62.30 & 61.40 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.25 look for further upside with 63.55 & 63.85 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.

Today’s Economic Events

07:45 FR SEP Consumer Confidence exp: 103 prev: 102
15:00 US AUG New Home Sales (k) exp: 657 prev: 635
15:30 US W37 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: 1058

U.S. indices were under pressure after House of Representatives Speaker and Democrat Nancy Pelosi said she will meet with Democratic lawmakers to consider opening impeachment proceedings against President Trump on Tuesday. The biggest company losers were in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.79%), Media (-1.68%) and Energy (-1.63%) sectors.

On the economic data front, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 125.1 in September (vs. 133.0 expected) from 135.1 in August. On Wednesday, we expect new homes sales to grow 3.6% MoM to an annualized rate of 658K units in August.

The S&P 500 (2966.60) trades below its 20d moving average (2,967.51 – positive slope) but above its 50d moving average (2,950.01 – negative slope).

European markets are expected to open on a negative note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

BY RAY MASSON

Base oil prices throughout Europe, the Middle East and Africa have remained relatively unaffected by recent run-ups in crude and petroleum product prices.

Base oils appear unusually insulated from such swings at the moment, because although it is common for them to lag before following crude values up or down, enough time as passed for them to react to the crude movements that followed the drone attack in Saudi Arabia 11 days ago.

Refiners have said that the output of the damaged facilities is not great enough for the attack to have impacted global crude supplies. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 64.10 Our preference: long positions above 64.10 with targets at 64.80 & 65.10 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 64.10 look for further downside with 63.80 & 63.55 as targets. Comment: a support base at 64.10 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.