Category: News

The DOW posted an eight-day winning streak on Friday amid positive sentiment regarding U.S.- China trade relations. Shares in the Banks (+1.42%), Transportation (+1.22%) and Materials (+1.14%) sectors traded higher while shares in the while shares in the Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-1.29%), Real Estate (-1.27%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (-1.24%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, retail sales rose 0.4% MoM in August (vs. +0.2% expected). The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 92.0 in September (vs. 90.8 expected) from 89.8 in August. On Monday traders anticipate the Empire Manufacturing Index to fell to 4.0 in September from 4.8 in the prior month. The S&P 500 (3,007.39) trades above its 20d moving average (2,933.42 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,950.00 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.85 Our preference: long positions above 59.85 with targets at 60.50 & 60.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 59.85 look for further downside with 59.20 & 58.65 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE AUG Wholesale Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.3%
10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone External Trade Balance (M EUR) exp: NA prev: 20612
13:30 US AUG Retail Sales exp: 0.2% prev: 0.7%
13:30 US AUG Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.1% prev: 1%
15:00 US JUL Business Inventories exp: 0.3% prev: 0%
15:00 US SEP P U. of Michigan Confidence exp: 90.8 prev: 89.8

U.S. indices are close to testing record highs after a strong bullish trading session on Thursday lifted by shares in the Software & Services (+0.86%), Household & Personal Products (+0.84%) and Commercial & Professional Services (+0.81%) sectors. Chinese importers have asked U.S. suppliers for a market in soybeans, pork and other farm goods which could be a signal that China may step up purchases of American agricultural products which has helped boosting optimism of a trade deal. The S&P 500 (3,009.57) trades above its 20d moving average (2,925.77 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,949.77 – flat slope).

On the economic data front, CPI rose 1.7% YoY in August (vs. +1.8% estimated and in July), while core CPI was up 2.4%, stronger than +2.3% expected and +2.2% in July. Jobless Claims fell to 204K (estimated 215K) for the week ended September 7 from 219K in the prior week. On Friday we can expect a MoM decrease in retail sales of 0.5%. The University of Michigan Sentiment for September is predicted to be 90.8, up from 89.8 in the prior month.

Crude Oil fell 1.12% marking a third day of declines after OPEC urged members to adhere to agreed upon production cuts. OPEC has been facing challenges balancing the supply market as supply from competitors continues to grow.

European markets are expected to start on a flat note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 61.65 Our preference: short positions below 61.65 with targets at 60.55 & 60.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 61.65 look for further upside with 62.25 & 62.80 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 61.65 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 60.55 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE AUG F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: -0.2%
07:00 GE AUG F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0% prev: -0.1%
07:45 FR AUG F Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
07:45 FR AUG F CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.5% prev: 0.5%
10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: -1.6%
12:45 EC ECB: Rates decision exp: 0% prev: 0%
13:30 US AUG Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US AUG CPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
13:30 US W35 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 215 prev: 217
19:00 US AUG Monthly Budget Satement (B USD) exp: -192 prev: -120 read more

U.S. indices pushed higher on Wednesday with the DOW posting its first six-day winning streak since June helped by stocks in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.63%), Telecommunication Services (+2.03%) and Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.37%) sectors. On the economic data front, PPI rose 1.8% YoY in August (vs. +1.7% expected and in July). Wholesale Inventories grew 0.2% MoM in July (as expected). Looking at Thursday’s calendar, August CPI is expected to increase 1.8% YoY compared to 1.8% in July. Jobless Claims for the week ending September 7 are expected to be 220K according to Bloomberg, up 3K from the prior week. The S&P 500 (3,000.93) trades above its 20d moving average (2,916.98 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,949.04 – flat slope).

U.S. Treasury yields rose for a third day, following those in the euro zone bond market. The euro weakened to a one-week low against the dollar ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting which comes ahead of next week’s policy meeting by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed is still expected to cut interest rates amid improving U.S. economic data. U.S. President Donald Trump pushed the Fed to cut interest rates to zero or into negative territory in a pair of Twitter posts on Wednesday.

European markets are expected to start on a positive. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 63.05 Our preference: short positions below 63.05 with targets at 62.55 & 62.20 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 63.05 look for further upside with 63.75 & 64.30 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed and calls for caution.

Today’s Economic Events

13:30 US AUG PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
13:30 US AUG Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.2%
15:00 US JUL F Wholesale Inventories exp: NA prev: 0.2%
15:30 US W35 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -4771

U.S. indices started Tuesday under pressure but rebounded off their lows following a report that China was considering a deal to purchase more U.S. agricultural goods ahead of the next trade meeting. Bond yields rallied into the close. Shares in the Telecommunication Services (+1.91%), Banks (+1.3%) and Energy (+1.29%) sectors traded higher while shares in the Commercial & Professional Services (-2.13%), Consumer Services (-1.92%) and Household & Personal Products (-1.82%) sectors saw downside pressure. Looking at crude oil, prices rallied to intraday highs before tanking after President Trump fired U.S. security adviser John Bolton which may ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran regarding Oil transport in the Strait. On the economic data front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism fell to 103.1 (expected 103.5) in August, the lowest level in four months, from 104.7 in July. Looking into Wednesday, traders will be eyeing key economic data regarding mortgage applications, PPI and wholesale inventories before the market opens. The S&P 500 (2,979.39) trades above its 20d moving average (2,913.25 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,948.31 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more