Category: News

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 60.35 Our preference: long positions above 60.35 with targets at 61.15 & 61.65 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 60.35 look for further downside with 59.95 & 59.55 as targets. Comment: even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Today’s Economic Events

13:15 US AUG ADP Employment Report (k) exp: 147 prev: 156
13:30 US 2Q F Nonfarm Productivity exp: 2.2% prev: 2.3%
13:30 US 2Q F Unit Labor Costs exp: 2.4% prev: 2.4%
13:30 US W34 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 215 prev: 215
14:45 US AUG F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 50.9
14:45 US AUG F Markit Services PMI exp: 50.9 prev: 50.9
15:00 US AUG ISM – Non Manufacturing exp: 53.9 prev: 53.7
15:00 US JUL F Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: NA prev: -0.4%
15:00 US JUL F Durable Goods Orders exp: NA prev: 2.1%
15:00 US JUL Factory Orders exp: 1% prev: 0.6%
16:00 US W34 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: -2935 prev: -10027 read more

U.S. indices joined a global rally on Wednesday fuelled by positive economic news out of China and Hong Kong’s decision to withdrawal its extradition bill. Crude oil gained the most since June after the U.S. announced plans for further sanctions on Iran and comments from Russia regarding production cuts. The best performing stocks were in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+3.06%), Automobiles & Components (+2.64%) and Consumer Durables & Apparel (+2.07%) sectors. Looking at Thursday, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is anticipated to report 2Q earning after the close. The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book stating the economy grew moderately through the end of August. Even as tariffs and trade policy threaten the U.S. economy, the majority of businesses have bullish outlooks for the near future. Manufacturing activity is down from the previous report. The China trade war tariffs have put pressure on retailers and manufacturers as input costs have slightly increased. On the economic data front, U.S. trade deficit amounted to $54.0B in July (vs. $53.4B expected). The S&P 500 (2,944.01) trades above its 20d moving average (2,898.81 – positive slope) but stays below its 50d moving average (2,944.01 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 58.10 Our preference: long positions above 58.10 with targets at 58.85 & 59.25 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 58.10 look for further downside with 57.65 & 57.25 as targets. Comment: the RSI is bullish and calls for further upside.

Today’s Economic Events

US AUG Total Vehicule Sales (M) exp: 16.8 prev: 16.8
08:50 FR AUG F Markit Composite PMI exp: 52.8 prev: 52.7
08:50 FR AUG F Markit Services PMI exp: 53.3 prev: 53.3
09:00 EU AUG F Markit Composite PMI exp: 51.9 prev: 51.8
09:00 EU AUG F Markit Services PMI exp: 53.4 prev: 53.4
10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone: Retail Trade (MoM) exp: -0.4% prev: 1.1%
13:30 US JUL Trade Balance (B USD) exp: -54.3 prev: -55.2

U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday pressured by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-1.71%), Capital Goods (-1.58%) and Banks (-1.49%) sectors. On the economic data front, the ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in August (vs. 51.3 estimated) from 51.2 in July, a fourth straight month of decline. The Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 50.3 in August (vs. 50.0 expected and 49.9 preliminary). Finally, construction spending increased 0.1% MoM in July (vs. +0.3% expected). The S&P 500 (2,906.27) trades above its 20d moving average (2,896.01 – flat slope) but stays below its 50d moving average (2,944.17 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to open on a positive note. read more

EMEA Base Oil Price Report

Base oil markets are getting back to some form of normality as buyers and sellers returned to work this week after summer holidays. Activity seems slow so far, but perhaps the coming days will yield some direction about the direction of the markets.

API Group I remains balanced despite a strike at a Northwestern European refinery. The strike had shortened availability, but gaps have been filled from alternative sources around Europe and the Baltic. It is too early to gauge whether demand will rise during the next few weeks, although sources said some blenders are back in buying mode and interested to establish supply contracts for next year for Group I grades. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 59.20 Our preference: short positions below 59.20 with targets at 58.10 & 57.75 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 59.20 look for further upside with 59.80 & 60.15 as targets. Comment: as long as the resistance at 59.20 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 58.10 remains high.

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC JUL Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.6%
14:45 US AUG F Markit Manufacturing PMI exp: NA prev: 49.9
15:00 US AUG ISM – Manufacturing exp: 51.1 prev: 51.2
15:00 US AUG ISM – Price Paid exp: NA prev: 45.1
15:00 US JUL Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -1.3%

U.S. markets were closed on Monday to Observe Labor Day. Later today, the U.S. Commerce Department will release July construction spending (vs +0.3% MoM expected), and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post its August Manufacturing PMI (vs 51.2 expected). The S&P 500 (2,928.46) trades above its 20d moving average (2,892.93 – flat slope) but stays below its 50d moving average (2,945.05 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to start on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange read more