Category: News

Base oil demand in Europe, the Middle East and Africa finally showed signs of taking off as a number of API Group I producers reported no longer having stocks in tank that needed to be moved out.

In addition, temporary maintenance shutdowns at a couple plants could further tighten supply. Group II demand is also positive, but prices for them are being treated roughly for both contract and spot transactions. Maybe this is the inevitable result of new capacity (ExxonMobil’s new plant in Rotterdam) hitting a market that was already flush with supply, but some players insist it is merely a matter of perception. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.35 Our preference: long positions above 66.35 with targets at 67.40 & 67.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 66.35 look for further downside with 66.05 & 65.60 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks downward momentum.

Today’s Economic Events

10:00 EC JAN Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 1% prev: -0.9%
12:30 US FEB PPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.3%
12:30 US FEB Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.1%
12:30 US JAN P Durable Goods Ex Transportation exp: 0.1% prev: 0.1%
12:30 US JAN P Durable Goods Orders exp: -0.4% prev: 1.2%
14:00 US JAN Construction Spending (MoM) exp: 0.4% prev: -0.6%
14:30 US W9 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: 2373 prev: 7069

U.S. indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Capital Goods (-1.14%), Transportation (-0.64%) and Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-0.34%) sectors were under pressure while shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.92%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+0.63%) and Utilities (+0.62%) sectors gained some strength. On the economic data front, CPI rose 1.5% YoY in February (vs +1.6% expected, +1.6% in January) and core CPI grew 2.1% (vs 2.2% expected, +2.2% in January). In other news, the NFIB small business optimism index rose to 101.7 in February (estimated 102.5) from 101.2 in January. The S&P 500 (2,791.52) stays above its 20d moving average (2,777.12 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,686.29 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a negative note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 66.05 Our preference: long positions above 66.05 with targets at 67.35 & 67.80 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 66.05 look for further downside with 65.60 & 65.20 as targets. Comment: the RSI advocates for further advance.

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK JAN Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.5%
09:30 UK JAN Manufacturing Production (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.7%
09:30 UK JAN Trade Balance in Goods (M GBP) exp: -12313 prev: -12102
09:30 UK JAN Trade Balance Non EU (M GBP) exp: -3760 prev: -3642
12:30 US FEB Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0%
12:30 US FEB CPI – Ex Food & Energy (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.2%

U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, boosted by shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.87%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+2.36%) and Media (+1.99%) sectors. On the economic data front, retail sales rose 0.2% MoM in January (estimated to remain flat, -1.6% in December). The S&P 500 (2,783.30) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,773.03 – positive slope) and remains above its 50d moving average (2,680.24 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more

BRENT Crude Technical Snap (Daily)

Pivot: 65.60 Our preference: long positions above 65.60 with targets at 66.40 & 67.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 65.60 look for further downside with 64.95 & 64.40 as targets. Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE JAN Current Account (B EUR) exp: NA prev: 21
07:00 GE JAN Exports (MoM) exp: -0.5% prev: 1.5%
07:00 GE JAN Imports (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: 0.7%
07:00 GE JAN Industrial Production (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: -0.4%
07:00 GE JAN Trade Balance (B EUR) exp: 13.1 prev: 14.3
12:30 US JAN Retail Sales exp: 0.1% prev: -1.2%
12:30 US JAN Retail Sales less Autos exp: 0.4% prev: -1.8%
14:00 US DEC Business Inventories exp: 0.6% prev: -0.1%

U.S. indices closed lower on Friday even though the market rebounded off the lows of the day. Shares in the Energy (-1.95%), Retailing (-0.74%) and Consumer Services (-0.57%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, housing starts advanced to 1.23M units in January (estimated 1.195M) from 1.037M in December while building permits rose to 1.345M (forecasted 1.287M) from 1.326M. In other news, nonfarm payrolls increased to 20K in February (expected +180K, +311K January), while the jobless rate fell to 3.8% (estimated 3.9%) from 4.0%. The S&P 500 (2,743.07) stays below its 20d moving average (2,769.26 – positive slope) but remains above its 50d moving average (2,673.93 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note. read more