Category: News

Today’s Economic Events

US DEC Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.3%
US DEC Average Weekly Hours exp: NA prev: 33.7
07:45 FR DEC P Consumer Price Index (MoM) exp: NA prev: -0.2%
07:45 FR DEC P CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.1% prev: -0.2%
08:50 FR DEC F Markit Composite PMI exp: 49.6 prev: 49.3
08:50 FR DEC F Markit Services PMI exp: 49.8 prev: 49.6
08:55 GE DEC Unemployment Change (k) exp: -11.7 prev: -16
08:55 GE DEC Unemployment Rate exp: 5% prev: 5%
09:00 EU DEC F Markit Composite PMI exp: 51.3 prev: 51.3
09:00 EU DEC F Markit Services PMI exp: 51.4 prev: 51.4
09:30 UK NOV M4 Money Supply (MoM) exp: NA prev: 0.7%
10:00 EC NOV Euro-Zone: PPI (MoM) exp: -0.2% prev: 0.8%
13:30 US DEC Change in Manufact. Payrolls (k) exp: 18 prev: 27
13:30 US DEC Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (k) exp: 185 prev: 155
13:30 US DEC Unemployment Rate exp: 3.7% prev: 3.7%
14:45 US DEC F Markit Composite PMI exp: NA prev: 53.6
14:45 US DEC F Markit Services PMI exp: 53.4 prev: 53.4
16:00 US W51 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -46 read more

General Market Comment

US indices closed lower on Thursday as the Dow dropped by 660 pts. Shares in the Technology Hardware & Equipment (-7.87%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-6.02%) and Transportation (-3.84%) sectors fell throughout the day. On the economic data front, MBA mortgage applications fell by 8.5% in week ended December 28th from a decline of 1.4% in the prior week. The ADP employment change increased to 271k in December (estimated 180k) compared to 157k in the previous week. Also, initial jobless claims advanced to 231k in week ended December 29th (forecasted 220k) vs 221k a week earlier. Continuing claims reached 1.74M in week ended December 22nd (expected 1.69M) from 1.708M in the prior week. In other news, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index improved to 59.6 in week ended December 30th compared to 59.4 in the previous week. Finally, the ISM manufacturing index declined to 54.1 in December (estimated 57.5) vs. 59.3 in November. The S&P 500 (2,447.89) remains below its 20d moving average (2,547.32 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,649.54 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 20.12.18

NEW YORK  – Oil prices fell about 3 percent on Thursday, hitting their lowest in more than a year on worries about oversupply. The outlook for energy demand as a U.S. interest rate rise knocked stock markets also affected sentiment. Brent crude futures fell $1.53 to $55.71 a barrel, a 2.7 percent loss, by 10:55 a.m. EST (1555 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also fell $1.55 to $46.62 a barrel, a 3.2 percent loss. Brent earlier hit a session low of $54.64 a barrel, the weakest since mid-September 2017, while WTI sank to $45.82, near its lowest since late August 2017. Meanwhile in the metals complex, London aluminum prices sank to a 16-month low after the U.S. Treasury’s announcement will lift sanctions on the core empire of Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska, which includes aluminum giant Rusal. the move effectively waters down the toughest penalties imposed since Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Shares in Rusal, the world’s largest aluminum producer after China’s Hongqiao, surged to an eight-month high while the base metal slid in London trade. read more

EMEA Weekly Base Oil Report: 20.12.18

Base oil markets are entering the seasonal run-down period, when most lubricant blenders close their doors or shorten operating hours. In either case, purchases of significant quantities of base oils becomes a secondary task.

Sellers are scouring the market looking for buyers who keep a low profile, and those convinced to make purchases at this time are able to leverage really low prices from producers and resellers. The continuing lower costs for crude and feedstocks has been the only saving grace for refiners, giving a little more leeway on base oil margins. read more

Today’s Economic Events

09:30 UK NOV Retail Sales (MoM) exp: 0.3% prev: -0.4%
12:00 UK BoE: Rates decision exp: 0.75% prev: 0.75%
13:30 US DEC Philadelphia Fed. exp: 15.1 prev: 12.9
13:30 US W49 Initial Jobless Claims (k) exp: 218 prev: 206
15:00 US NOV Leading Indicators exp: 0% prev: 0.1%

General Market Comment

U.S. indices closed lower on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to a range of 2.25% – 2.5% , as expected. Shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-4.36%), Transportation (-3.16%) and Technology Hardware & Equipment (-2.88%) sectors ended lower. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate to a range of 2.25% – 2.50% as widely expected. However Fed official’s median forecast implied that there will be two more rate increases in 2019, down from three times estimated in September. Meanwhile, 2019 GDP growth forecast was lowered to 2.3% from 2.5% and inflation forecast was cut to 1.9% from 2.0%. Chairman Jerome Powell added that inflation remains below 2% target which gives the FOMC room “to be patient”. The S&P 500 (2,506.96) remains below its 20d moving average (2,655.81 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,708.06 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 19.12.18

NEW YORK – U.S. crude stocks fell last week, while gasoline stocks increased and distillate inventories fell, the EIA said on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 497,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 14, a much smaller draw than the decrease of 2.4 million barrels that analysts had expected. The decline was the third consecutive decrease.

Today’s Economic Events

07:00 GE NOV Producer Price Index (MoM) exp: 0% prev: 0.3%
09:30 UK NOV CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) exp: 0.2% prev: 0.1%
09:30 UK NOV PPI – Input (MoM) exp: -2.3% prev: 0.8%
09:30 UK NOV PPI – Output (MoM) exp: -0.1% prev: 0.3%
15:00 US NOV Existing Home Sales (M) exp: 5.2 prev: 5.2
15:30 US W49 Crude Oil Inventories (WoW chg) exp: NA prev: -1208
19:00 US Fed: Rates decision exp: 2.5% prev: 2.25%

General Market Comment

US indices closed mixed on Tuesday. Shares in the Energy (-2.35%), Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-1.95%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (-0.83%) sectors ended on a negative note while shares in the Retailing (+1.38%), Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.23%) and Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.21%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, housing starts rose 3.2% MoM to 1.256M units in November (vs 1.228M expected) and building permits jumped 5.0% MoM to 1.328M in November (vs 1.26M expected). The S&P 500 (2,546.16) remains below its 20d moving average (2,665.00 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,715.61 – negative slope). read more

Commodity Closing – Europe/Oil-Gas Majors 18.12.18

NEW YORK – Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday after reports of swelling inventories and forecasts that record U.S. and Russian output will hit a market that may see weaker demand if global growth deteriorates as many expect. U.S. crude oil fell $2.78, or 5.5 percent to trade at $47.10 a barrel by mid-day. The session low was $46.97, its weakest since September 2017.