General Market Comment
US indices closed mixed on Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Shares in the Utilities (-1.48%), Food, Beverage & Tobacco (-1.17%) and Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (-1.1%) sectors closed lower while shares in the Consumer Durables & Apparel (+1.72%), Energy (+1.58%) and Automobiles & Components (+1.43%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims slightly increased to 224k in week ended November 17th (estimated 215k) from 221k in the previous week. Continuing claims diminished to 1.668M in week ended November 10th (forecasted 1.65M) compared to 1.67M a week earlier. MBA mortgage applications declined by 0.1% in week ended November 16th from a fall of 3.2% in the previous week. In other news, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index increased to 61.3 in week ended November 18th vs. 60.5 a week earlier. The Leading Index improved by 0.1% in October, in-line with estimates, from an increase of 0.6% in September. Also, existing home sales advanced by 1.4% MoM to 5.22M units in October (expected 5.2M) from 5.15M a month earlier. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index declined to 97.5 in November (estimated 98.3) compared to 98.6 in October. The S&P 500 (2,649.93) remains below its 20d moving average (2,717.89 – flat slope) and 50d moving average (2,799.26 – negative slope).
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs on Wednesday with the exception of the GBP and the JPY. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims slightly increased to 224k in week ended November 17th (estimated 215k) from 221k in the previous week. Continuing claims diminished to 1.668M in week ended November 10th (forecasted 1.65M) compared to 1.67M a week earlier. MBA mortgage applications declined by 0.1% in week ended November 16th from a fall of 3.2% in the previous week. In other news, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index increased to 61.3 in week ended November 18th vs. 60.5 a week earlier. The Leading Index improved by 0.1% in October, in-line with estimates, from an increase of 0.6% in September. Also, existing home sales advanced by 1.4% MoM to 5.22M units in October (expected 5.2M) from 5.15M a month earlier. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index declined to 97.5 in November (estimated 98.3) compared to 98.6 in October.
The Euro was bullish against most of its major pairs except for the NZD, the AUD and the CAD. The UK PSNB (Public Sector Net Borrowing) ex Banking Groups widened to £8.8B in October (£6.1B expected) from £2.8B a month earlier.
The Australian dollar was higher against all of its major pairs.
Commodities
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (JAN 19) was up $1 to $54.46. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $61.03) and below its 50D MA (@ $67.13). The 14d RSI below 30 (22.97) indicates WTI Crude Future (JAN 19) was oversold. The US Department of Energy reported that, for the week ended 16 November, crude oil inventories increased 4851k barrels compared to the previous week.
Gold was up $4.2 to $1225.9. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1222) and above its 50D MA (@ $1213).
Copper Future (MAR 19) on Comex was up 2.5c to 280.1c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 275.24c) and above its 50D MA (@ 277.76c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 1975 tons to 143275 tons.