General Market Comment 01.03.19

U.S. indices closed higher to finish the week on Friday. Shares in the Energy (+1.81%), Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.5%) and Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (+1.35%) sectors gained momentum. On the economic data front, personal income declined by 0.1% MoM in January (estimated +0.3%, +1.0% in December), while personal spending decreased by 0.5% in December (forecasted -0.3%, +0.6% in November). In other news, final readings of February Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI posted 53.0 (expected 53.7). Also, the ISM Manufacturing Index declined to 54.2 in February (estimated 55.8) from 56.6 in January. Finally, final readings of University of Michigan sentiment index posted 93.8 in February (forecasted 95.9). The S&P 500 (2,803.69) stays above its 20d moving average (2,757.31 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,642.77 – positive slope).

European markets are expected to start on a positive note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bullish against all of its major pairs on Friday. On the economic data front, personal income declined by 0.1% in January (estimated +0.3%) from an increase of 1% in December while personal spending decreased by 0.5% in December (forecasted -0.3%) compared to an improvement 0.6% in November. In other news, Markit US manufacturing PMI reached 53 in February (expected 53.7) vs. 54.9 in January. Also, the ISM manufacturing index declined to 54.2 in February (estimated 55.8) from 56.6 in January. Finally, the University of Michigan sentiment index increased to 93.8 in February (forecasted 95.9) compared to 91.2 a month earlier. 

The Euro was bullish against most of its major pairs except for the USD. The Euro zone PMI manufacturing index was 49.3 in February in final estimation, a four year low, vs 49.2 in first one and 50.5 a month earlier. Separately, the euro-zone CPI growth was 1.5% in February, as expected, and after 1.4% in January. The German retail sales bounced by 3.3% in January (+2 expected) after a 3.1% drop the prior month. The UK PMI manufacturing index dropped in 52 in February, as expected, from 52.6 in January. Separately, the mortgage approvals in the UK increased to 66.8K (63.4K anticipated) in January from 64.5K in December. 

The Australian dollar was lower against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CAD, the GBP and the JPY.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (APR 19) was down $1.5 to $55.75. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $55.25) and above its 50D MA (@ $52.3).

Gold was down $21.4 to $1291.9. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1318) and below its 50D MA (@ $1301).

Copper Future (MAY 19) on Comex was down 2.1c to 292.75c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 286.13c) and above its 50D MA (@ 275.16c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 2375 tons to 126100 tons.