U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, led by shares in the Banks (+2.94%), Automobiles & Components (+2.64%) and Transportation (+2.25%) sectors. On the economic data front, retail sales declined 0.2% MoM in February (estimated +0.2%, +0.7% in January). In other news, the Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 52.4 in March (forecasted and previously estimated 52.5), compared with 53.0 in the prior month. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in March (expected 54.5) from 54.2 in February. Finally, construction spending increased 1.0% MoM in February (estimated -0.2%, +2.5% in January). The S&P 500 (2,867.19) stays above both its 20d moving average (2,807.72 – positive slope) and 50d moving average (2,760.23 – positive slope).
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs on Monday with the exception of the CHF, the EUR and the JPY. On the economic data front, retail sales advance declined by 0.2% MoM in February (estimated +0.2%) from an increase of 0.7% a month earlier. In other news, the Markit US manufacturing PMI reached 52.4 in March (forecasted 52.5) vs. 53 in the prior month while ISM manufacturing slightly improved to 55.3 in March (expected 54.5) compared to 54.2 in the previous month. Finally, construction spending increased by 1% in February (estimated -0.2%) vs. 2.5% in January.
The Euro was bearish against all of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF and the JPY. The euro-zone PMI manufacturing index was 47.5 in March in final estimation, a low since April 2013, vs 47.6 in first one and 49.3 in February. Separately, the euro-zone CPI was up by 1.4% in March YoY vs +1.5% expected and +1.5% a month earlier. The UK PMI manufacturing index increased to 55.1 in March (51.2 anticipated) from 52.1 in February.
The Australian dollar was higher against all of its major pairs except for the GBP.
Commodities
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (MAY 19) was up $1.5 to $61.65. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $58.74) and above its 50D MA (@ $56.63).
Gold was down $5.2 to $1287.1. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1301) and below its 50D MA (@ $1308).
Copper Future (MAY 19) on Comex was about flat to 292.8c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 290.15c) and above its 50D MA (@ 285.21c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 0 tons to 168525 tons.