General Market Comment 20.09.19

U.S. indices closed flat on Thursday despite upbeat data suggesting the U.S. economy is still on a moderate growth path. Shares in the Software & Services (+0.93%), Telecommunication Services (+0.61%) and Health Care Equipment & Services (+0.55%) sectors pushed higher while shares in the Automobiles & Components (-0.99%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (-0.75%) and Transportation (-0.7%) sectors were under pressure. On the economic data front, jobless claims rose to 208K for the week ending September 14 (vs. 213K estimated) from 206K in the prior week. The Leading Index was flat MoM (vs. -0.1% expected). Existing Home Sales increased 1.3% MoM to an annualized rate of 5.49M units in August (vs. 5.38M expected). The S&P 500 (3,006.79) trades above its 20d moving average (2,952.41 – positive slope) and its 50d moving average (2,951.56 – flat slope).

European markets are expected to open on a flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD and AUD on Thursday. On the economic data front, US Jobless claims came out at 208K for the week ending September 14 missing the 213k estimate compared to a revised 206K in the prior reading. The US Leading Index reading for August did not change compared to a revised increase of 0.4% in July. US Existing Home Sales beat estimates increasing 0.07M for August from 5.42M in July.

The Euro was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD, AUD and USD. In Europe, OECD cut global growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.2%, the weakest annual growth rates since the financial crisis, with downside risks continuing to mount. OECD said the global economy has become increasingly fragile and uncertain. Global growth could get stuck at persistently low levels without firm policy action from governments. Escalating trade conflicts are taking an increasing toll on confidence and investment, adding to policy uncertainty, aggravating risks in financial markets and endangering already weak growth prospects worldwide. Regarding the UK, OECD added: Substantial uncertainty persists about the timing and nature of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, particularly as concern of a possible no-deal exit that could push the UK into recession in 2020 and lead to sectoral disruptions in Europe. In the UK, Bank of England kept its main rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 9-0 vote. On the economic data front, retail sales declined 0.2% on a monthly basis in August versus +0.2% in the previous month. Retail sales are expected to remain stable.

The Australian dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (OCT 19) was about flat to $58.46. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $56.42) and above its 50D MA (@ $56.2).

Gold was up $5.1 to $1499.1. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1515) and above its 50D MA (@ $1482).

Copper Future (DEC 19) on Comex was about flat to 260.65c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 259.98c) and below its 50D MA (@ 263.31c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 5000 tons to 290800 tons.