General Market Comment 30.09.19

U.S. indices closed lower on Friday pressured by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (-2.14%), Software & Services (-1.42%) and Commercial & Professional Services (-1.3%) sectors after reports that the White House is considering limits on U.S. investment into China.


On the economic data front, U.S. personal income rose 0.4% MoM in August (as expected) and personal spending grew 0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected). Core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.1% MoM in August (vs. +0.2% expected). Durable goods orders increased 0.2% MoM in August (vs. -1.1% expected).Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was confirmed at 93.2 (vs. 92.1 expected). On Monday, economists expect the Market News International Chicago PMI to fell to 50.0 in September from 50.4 in August.


The S&P 500 (2961.79) trades below its 20d moving average (2,979.64 – positive slope) but above its 50d moving average (2,948.83 – negative slope).


European markets are expected to start on a negative note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD and GBP on Friday. On the economic data front, US Personal Income rose 0.4% in line with estimates for August compared to a 0.1% rise in July. US Durable Goods increased 0.2% beating -1.1% estimates for the August preliminary reading compared to a 2.0% rise the prior month. US Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 0.1% missing 0.3% estimates for the month end August compared to a revised 0.5% increase in July. Finally the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report rose to 93.2 beating 92.1 estimates for the September final reading compared to 92 in the September preliminary reading. On Monday, economists anticipate the US Market News International Chicago PMI Report to decrease to 50 for September compared to 50.4 in August.

The Euro was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the AUD and CHF. In Europe, European Commission Economic Confidence Indicator Eurozone for September fell to its lowest level since February 2015 at 101.7 versus 103.0 expected and 103.1 in August. However, Consumer Confidence stayed at -6.5 as expected. In the U.K., Bank of England Michael Saunders Monetary Policy Committee member, who is considered a hawkish policymaker by investors, said: “If the U.K. avoids a no-deal Brexit, monetary policy also could go either way and I think it is quite plausible that the next move in Bank Rate would be down rather than up.” Besides, September U.K. GFK Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly bounced to -12 from its lowest level since 2013 at -14 (-14 expected).

The Australian dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF and EUR.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (NOV 19) was about flat to $56.09. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $56.94) and above its 50D MA (@ $55.94).

Gold was down $7.8 to $1497. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1510) and above its 50D MA (@ $1493).

Copper Future (DEC 19) on Comex was up 2.3c to 260c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 261.32c) and below its 50D MA (@ 262.04c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 5650 tons to 266225 tons.