General Market Comment 04.10.19

US indices closed higher on Thursday after a volatile session lifted by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+1.89%), Energy (+1.26%) and Software & Services (+1.24%) sectors.

On the economic data front, Markit US Services PMI released in line with estimates at 50.9 for the September final reading, which is also in line with the preliminary reading compared to Tuesday’s disappointing manufacturing data. US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K beating the 215K estimate for the week ending September 28th, rising 4K from a revised 215K in the prior week. US Manufacturers New Orders came in at -0.1% for August which was higher than the -0.2% estimate compared to a 1.4% increase in July. US Durable Goods New Orders came in at 0.2% for the August final reading, which is in line with the August preliminary reading.

On Friday, economists expect the a US trade deficit of $54.5B for August compared to a deficit of $54.0B in July. US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase 16K to 146K for September from the previous 130K in August. The Unemployment rate for September is expected to be in line with the prior month at 3.7%.

The S&P 500 (2910.63) trades below both its 20d moving average (2,978.08 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,943.40 – negative slope).


European markets are expected to start-open on a positive-negative-flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs on Thursday with the exception of the CHF. On the economic data front, Markit US Services PMI released in line with estimates at 50.9 for the September final reading, which is also in line with the preliminary reading compared to Tuesday’s disappointing manufacturing data. US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 219K beating the 215K estimate for the week ending September 28th, rising 4K from a revised 215K in the prior week. US Manufacturers New Orders came in at -0.1% for August which was higher than the -0.2% estimate compared to a 1.4% increase in July. US Durable Goods New Orders came in at 0.2% for the August final reading, which is in line with the August preliminary reading. On Friday, economists expect the US Trade Balance to increase to -$54.5B for August compared to -$54B in July. US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase 16K to 146K for September from the previous 130K in August. The Unemployment rate for September is expected to be in line with the prior month at 3.7%.

The Euro was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CAD, CHF and USD. In Europe, the euro-zone PMI services index was 51.6 in second reading for September vs. 52 in first reading and 53.5 in August. UK PMI services index fell to 49.5 in September from 50.6 a month earlier. It was anticipated to be 50.3.

The Australian dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (NOV 19) was about flat to $52.26. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $56.52) and below its 50D MA (@ $55.68).

Gold was up $6.7 to $1506.1. The precious metal was above its 20D MA (@ $1500) and above its 50D MA (@ $1498).

Copper Future (DEC 19) on Comex was down 1.5c to 255.55c/lb. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ 261.05c) and below its 50D MA (@ 260.72c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories increased 36175 tons to 290250 tons.