General Market Comment 18.10.19

US indices closed slightly higher on Thursday helped by shares in the Health Care Equipment & Services (+1.26%), Food & Staples Retailing (+0.81%) and Media (+0.77%) sectors. Investors maintained a bullish sentiment after news of European Union and the U.K. striking a deal on Brexit. On the economic data front, US Housing Starts fell to 1.256 million in September missing the 1.32 million estimate compared to a revised 1.386 million in August. US Building Permits dropped to 1.387 million for September, above the 1.35 million estimate and lower than the revised prior 1.425 million. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 214 thousand for the week ended October 12th, below the 215 thousand estimate and above the prior 210 thousand. Overall, claims continue to show a tight labor market. Continuing Claims decreased to 1.679 million for the week ended October 5th, above the 1.675 million estimate and down from a revised 1.689 million the prior week. Industrial Production month over month declined to -0.4% for September, below the -0.2% estimate and down from a revised 0.8% in August. On Friday, economists expect the Leading Index to remain unchanged.

WTI crude oil closed higher on Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a decrease in gasoline and distillate supplies by approximately 6.4 million barrels.
European markets are expected to start-open on a positive-negative-flat note.

Foreign Exchange

The US dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs on Thursday. On the economic data front, US Housing Starts fell to 1.256 million in September missing the 1.32 million estimate compared to a revised 1.386 million in August. US Building Permits dropped to 1.387 million for September, above the 1.35 million estimate and lower than the revised prior 1.425 million. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 214 thousand for the week ended October 12th, below the 215 thousand estimate and above the prior 210 thousand. Overall, claims continue to show a tight labor market. Continuing Claims decreased to 1.679 million for the week ended October 5th, above the 1.675 million estimate and down from a revised 1.689 million the prior week. Industrial Production month over month declined to -0.4% for September, below the -0.2% estimate and down from a revised 0.8% in August. On Friday, economists expect the Leading Index to remain unchanged.

The Euro was mixed against all of its major pairs. In Europe, the UK negotiators and the European Union reached an agreement on Brexit. The agreement needs the backing of the UK lawmakers. A vote is expected Saturday. On the stat front, UK retail sales were flat in September after a 0.3% decline a month earlier (revised from -0.2%). Economists anticipated a 0.2% decline.

The Australian dollar was bullish against all of its major pairs.

Commodities

After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (NOV 19) was up $0.7 to $54.02. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $54.42) and below its 50D MA (@ $55.24). The US Department of Energy reported that, for the week ended 11 October, crude oil inventories increased 9281k barrels compared to the previous week.

Gold was about flat to $1492. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1499) and below its 50D MA (@ $1507).

Copper Future (DEC 19) on Comex was about flat to 259.95c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 259.15c) and above its 50D MA (@ 259.72c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 475 tons to 275100 tons.