US indices closed higher for the fourth consecutive day lifted by shares in the Consumer Services (+1.06%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+1%) and Retailing (+0.83%) sectors. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 1.5% for the week ending November 22nd, up from a decline of -2.2% the week before. Gross Domestic Product increased 2.1%, better than the 1.9% expectation for the Annualized third quarter second reading, up from 1.9% in the advanced reading. Durable Goods orders rose 0.6%, better than the -0.9% consensus for the October preliminary reading, up from a revised -1.4% for the September final reading. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 213K, better than the 221K estimate for the week ending November 23rd, down 15K from a revised 228K the week before. Continuing Claims declined to 1,640K, better than the 1,691K estimate for the week ending November 16th, compared to a revised 1,697K in the prior week. Personal Income released unchanged, missing the 0.3% estimate for October, compared to a rise of 0.3% last month. Personal Spending came in at 0.3%, as expected for October, slightly up from 0.2% in September. The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer came in at 46.3, below the 47.0 consensus for November, up from 43.2 in October. Finally the Fed released their last Beige Book of the year, which stated that economic activity expanded modestly, with improvements in auto sales, home sales and residential construction. Employment rose slightly overall, even with a tight labor market and prices rose at a moderate rate, even with the continuing trade war. In conclusion the outlook remains positive and growth is expected to continue into next year. On Thursday, no major economic news is expected as U.S. markets are closed to observe the Thanksgiving holiday.
European markets are expected to start on a flat note.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs on Wednesday, with the exception of the GBP. On the economic data front, MBA Mortgage Applications rose 1.5% for the week ending November 22nd, up from a decline of -2.2% the week before. Gross Domestic Product increased 2.1%, better than the 1.9% expectation for the Annualized third quarter second reading, up from 1.9% in the advanced reading. Durable Goods orders rose 0.6%, better than the -0.9% consensus for the October preliminary reading, up from a revised -1.4% for the September final reading. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 213K, better than the 221K estimate for the week ending November 23rd, down 15K from a revised 228K the week before. Continuing Claims declined to 1,640K, better than the 1,691K estimate for the week ending November 16th, compared to a revised 1,697K in the prior week. Personal Income released unchanged, missing the 0.3% estimate for October, compared to a rise of 0.3% last month. Personal Spending came in at 0.3%, as expected for October, slightly up from 0.2% in September. The Market News International Chicago Business Barometer came in at 46.3, below the 47.0 consensus for November, up from 43.2 in October. Finally the Fed released their last Beige Book of the year, which stated that economic activity expanded modestly, with improvements in auto sales, home sales and residential construction. Employment rose slightly overall, even with a tight labor market and prices rose at a moderate rate, even with the continuing trade war. In conclusion the outlook remains positive and growth is expected to continue into next year. On Thursday, no major economic news is expected.
The Euro was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF and JPY. In Europe, France’s INSEE November Consumer Confidence Index was released at 106 (vs 103 expected and 104 in October). German October Import Price Index was released at -0.1% on month (vs -0.2% expected and 0.6% in September)..
The Australian dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the CHF and JPY.
Commodities
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (JAN 20) was about flat to $58.12. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ $57.06) and above its 50D MA (@ $55.58). The US Department of Energy reported that, for the week ended 22 November, crude oil inventories increased 1572k barrels compared to the previous week.
Gold was down $6.8 to $1454.6. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1473) and below its 50D MA (@ $1488).
Copper Future (MAR 20) on Comex was about flat to 270c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 266.92c) and above its 50D MA (@ 264.16c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 1000 tons to 212200 tons.