General Market Comment
US indices closed higher on Thursday, lifted by shares in the Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment (+3.21%), Technology Hardware & Equipment (+2.59%) and Software & Services (+2.12%) sectors. On the economic data front, the Empire manufacturing survey increased to 23.3 in November (estimated 20) from 21.1 in October. The Philadelphia Federal Business Outlook declined to 12.9 in November (forecasted 20) compared to 22.2 a month earlier. In other news, retail sales advanced by 0.8% MoM in October (estimated 0.5%) vs. a slight decline of 0.1% in the previous month. Import price index improved by 0.5% MoM in October (expected 0.1%) from an increase of 0.2% in September. Also, initial jobless claims reached 216k in week ended November 10th (forecasted 213k) compared to 214k a week earlier. Continuing claims increased to 1.676M in week ended November 3rd (estimated 1.625M) vs. 1.63M in the prior week. Finally, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index slightly decreased to 60.5 in week ended November 11th from 61.3 a week earlier. The S&P 500 (2,730.20) breaks above its 20d moving average (2,727.97 – negative slope) and 50d moving average (2,815.40 – negative slope).
European markets are expected to start on a positive note.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs on Thursday with the exception of the GBP. On the economic data front, the Empire manufacturing survey increased to 23.3 in November (estimated 20) from 21.1 in October. The Philadelphia Federal Business Outlook declined to 12.9 in November (forecasted 20) compared to 22.2 a month earlier. In other news, retail sales advanced by 0.8% MoM in October (estimated 0.5%) vs. a slight decline of 0.1% in the previous month. Import price index improved by 0.5% MoM in October (expected 0.1%) from an increase of 0.2% in September. Also, initial jobless claims reached 216k in week ended November 10th (forecasted 213k) compared to 214k a week earlier. Continuing claims increased to 1.676M in week ended November 3rd (estimated 1.625M) vs. 1.63M in the prior week. Finally, the Bloomberg consumer comfort index slightly decreased to 60.5 in week ended November 11th from 61.3 a week earlier.
The Euro was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD, the AUD and the CAD. EU27 new car registrations declined by 7.3% in October after a fall of 23.5% a month earlier. In the UK, retail sales slid by 0.5% in October (+0.2% expected), following a 0.4% decline in September.
The Australian dollar was bullish against all of its major pairs.
Commodities
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (DEC 18) was about flat to $56.51. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $63.42) and below its 50D MA (@ $68.18). The 14d RSI below 30 (18.99) indicates WTI Crude Future (DEC 18) was oversold. The US Department of Energy reported that, for the week ended 9 November, crude oil inventories increased 10270k barrels compared to the previous week.
Gold was up $2.1 to $1212.9. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1223) and above its 50D MA (@ $1211).
Copper Future (DEC 18) on Comex was up 3.9c to 274.95c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 273.26c) and above its 50D MA (@ 274.66c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories decreased 625 tons to 166450 tons.