US indices closed higher on trade optimism Thursday after a tweet from Trump said “Big day of negotiations with China. They want to make a deal, but do I? I meet with the Vice Premier tomorrow at The White House” The best performing stocks were in the , Banks (+1.46%), Automobiles & Components (+1.33%) and Energy (+1.28%) sectors. The S&P 500 (2,938.13) trades below its 20d moving average (2,962.80 – negative slope) but breaks above 50d moving average (2,935.35 – negative slope).
On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 210K which was lower than the 220K estimate for the week ended October 5th from a revised 220K the week before. Continuing Claims rose to 1684K which was higher than the 1651K estimate for the week ended September 28th from a revised 1655K the prior week. US CPI MoM reported unchanged missing the 0.1% estimate for September compared to 0.1% in August. On Friday, economists expect the US Import Price Index to be unchanged for September compared to a decline of 0.5% in August. The University of Michigan Sentiment is expected to come in at 92 for the October preliminary reading which is down 1.2 points from 93.2 in the September final reading.
European markets are expected to open on a positive note.
Foreign Exchange
The US dollar was bearish against most of its major pairs on Thursday with the exception of the JPY. On the economic data front, Initial Jobless Claims fell to 210K which was lower than the 220K estimate for the week ended October 5th from a revised 220K the week before. Continuing Claims rose to 1684K which was higher than the 1651K estimate for the week ended September 28th from a revised 1655K the prior week. US CPI MoM reported unchanged missing the 0.1% estimate for September compared to 0.1% in August. On Friday, economists expect the US Import Price Index to be unchanged for September compared to a decline of 0.5% in August. The University of Michigan Sentiment is expected to come in at 92 for the October preliminary reading which is down 1.2 points from 93.2 in the September final reading.
The Euro was bullish against most of its major pair with the exception of the NZD, AUD and GBP. In Europe, Germany trade balance excess narrowed to E16.2B in August from E21.6B a month earlier. Economists anticipated a E18.8B excess. Exports dropped 1.8% while imports increased 0.5%. French industrial production unexpectedly fell by 0.9% in August (+0.3% anticipated) after a 0.3% rise in July. UK GDP decreased by 0.1% MoM in August after a 0.4% rise in July (revised from +0.3%). It was expected to be flat. Separately, UK industrial production fell 0.6% in August (+0.1% expected) after a 0.1% rise a month earlier.
The Australian dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the GBP.
Commodities
After the close of Wall Street, WTI Crude Future (NOV 19) was up $1.1 to $53.66. The contract was below its 20D MA (@ $55.64) and below its 50D MA (@ $55.25).
Gold was down $11.7 to $1493.9. The precious metal was below its 20D MA (@ $1501) and below its 50D MA (@ $1506).
Copper Future (DEC 19) on Comex was up 4.1c to 260.85c/lb. The contract was above its 20D MA (@ 259.74c) and above its 50D MA (@ 259.49c). In Europe, the London Metal Exchange reported its copper inventories increased 2475 tons to 285600 tons.